2016 Box Office Forecast

This page will list my estimates for each wide release domestically for the calendar year of 2016. As new developments ensue, eg. new release dates, new casting, new trailers, expect my estimates to fluctuate a lot, especially as we are heading towards the final leg of marketing, or as the date draws closer. All the films will be covered once again in the site’s upcoming weekly, monthly, and seasonal box office previews. Some of the films below will also be given special previews in their individual posts, so check back regularly as well for the latest links to the respective pages. Don’t expect these films’ estimates to be really accurate- information at the moment is scarce, and hence this is just guesses to get you pumping.

THIS PAGE WAS UPDATED APRIL 16 2016 WITH UPDATED ESTIMATES FOR APRIL-JUNE.

Here’s my say on the top 10 films both domestically and worldwide. (All films released domestically will be bolded)

DOMESTIC
1)Star Wars: Rogue One- $600 million
2)Captain America: Civil War- $490 million
3)Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice- $420 million
4)Finding Dory- $380 million
5)Independence Day: Resurgence- $340 million
6)X-Men: Apocalypse- $302 million
7)Bourne 5- $270 million
8)Star Trek Beyond- $260 million
9)Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- $245 million
10)Suicide Squad- $240 million

WORLDWIDE
1)Star Wars: Rogue One- $1.5 billion
2)Captain America: Civil War- $1.35 billion
3)Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice- $1.1 billion
4)Finding Dory- $1.03 billion
5)Independence Day Resurgence- $940 million
6)Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- $900 million
7)Ice Age 5- $880 million
8)X-Men: Apocalypse- $860 million
9)Alice Through the Looking Glass- $770 million
10)Angry Birds- $720 million

Below are my opening weekend and final cumulative domestic gross estimates for the individual films. They will be arranged according to their domestic release dates (wide release)

2016 Yearly Preview Series
1)Jan-Jun Outlook
2)Jul-Dec Outlook 

JANUARY
Probably gearing up to become one of the most jam-packed January to date, this month has a lot of enticing offers for a month that has been traditionally categorized as a dumping month for Hollywood. From big studio animated offerings like Kungfu Panda 3, Ride Along 2 and 13 Hours, to new YA adaptation The 5th Wave, this month is set to kick off the year with a high. There might not be another American Sniper, but with plenty of big shots, we don’t need one film to scale that height to make this the biggest January ever.

January 8th 2016

-The Forest-
Estimates: $14 million- $33 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Masked Saint-
Estimates: $11 million- $36 million end gross
Actual:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Revenant- (Wide Expansion)
Estimates: $21 million- $80 million end gross
Actual:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

January 15th 2016

-13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi-
Estimates: $26 million- $67 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Norm of the North-
Estimates: $8 million- $24 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Ride Along 2-
Estimates: $47 million- $150 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

January 22nd 2016

-The Boy-
Estimates: $15 million- $37 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Dirty Grandpa-
Estimates: $14 million- $44 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The 5th Wave-
Estimates: $18 million- $52 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

January 29th 2016

-The Finest Hours-
Estimates: $8 million- $25 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Kungfu Panda 3-
Estimates: $55 million- $170 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Fifty Shades of Black-
Estimates: $7 million- $16 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Jane Got a Gun-
Estimates: $15 million- $42 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

FEBRUARY
February is pretty much a wild card this time around, but there are definitely some enticing offers in stall. Hail, Caesar!, for example, sees George Clooney, Josh Brolin and the Coen Brothers team up, which could prove profitable, and who can possibly forget Deadpool is around the corner? Zoolander 2 will pick up some of the slack as well, but don’t expect to see February 2016 top 2015, since that involves beating Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman (and Spongebob!)

February 5th 2016

-The Choice-
Estimates: $19 million- $74 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Hail, Caesar!-
Estimates: $21 million- $70 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Pride and Prejudice and Zombies-
Estimates: $19 million- $56 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

February 12th 2016

-Deadpool-
Estimates: $57 million- $160 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-How to be Single-
Estimates: $20 million- $62 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Zoolander 2-
Estimates: $21 million- $64 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

February 19th 2016

-Race-
Estimates: $8 million- $21 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Risen-
Estimates: $12 million- $34 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Viral-
Estimates: $8 million- $19 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

February 26th 2016

-Eddie the Eagle-
Estimates: $10 million- $41 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Gods of Egypt-
Estimates: $18 million- $49 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Triple 9-
Estimates: $12 million- $35 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Witch-
Estimates: $16 million- $40 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

MARCH
March 2016 continues Hollywood’s tradition of unloading their first bulk of blockbusters upon us all, having served as a precursor month to summer over the past few years. Having seen The Hunger Games launch years ago, and other hits like Cinderella, we’ll, this time round, see a couple of big studio offerings, some of which scream ‘sleeper hit’. For instance, Sacha Baron Cohen will return for his next comedy offering, ‘The Brothers Grimsby’, which seems like Hollywood’s second take on combining the spy and comedy genre. There’s the next installment in the Divergent franchise, calling the month home for the third year going, and there’s Zootopia, which already looks like a hit, at least according to early trailers. Oh, and there’s Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice too, with Doomsday and Wonder Woman and Lex Luthor and God knows who.

March 4th 2016

-London has Fallen-
Estimates: $36 million- $95 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Whiskey Tango Foxtrot-
Estimates: $5 million- $14 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Zootopia-
Estimates: $51 million- $175 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

March 11th 2016

-The Brothers Grimsby-
Estimates: $24 million- $90 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Young Messiah-
Estimates: $14 million- $51 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-10 Cloverfield Lane-
Estimates: $27 million- $75 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Perfect Match-
Estimates: $3 million- $11 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

March 18th 2016

-The Divergent Series: Allegiant-
Estimates: $39 million- $95 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Miracles from Heaven-
Estimates: $16 million (5 days)- $59 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

March 25th 2016

-Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice-
Estimates: $171 million- $420 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2-
Estimates: $24 million- $69 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

APRIL
April 2016 might not have a big, fat hit like Furious 7 that’s set to dominate the charts, but it does have a couple of decent contenders willing to try to make this a less top-heavy month. Yeah, 2015 had Furious 7, Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 and everybody else, while 2016 has  The Jungle Book, Huntsman, Barbershop: The Next Cut and maybe The Boss?? However, here’s a down month looking at it from this point out, with hopefully a surprise hit lurking somewhere.

April 1st 2016

-God’s Not Dead 2-
Estimates: $8 million- $32 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Meet the Blacks-
Estimates: $6 million- $14 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

April 8th 2016

-The Boss-
Estimates: $19 million- $56 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Hardcore Henry-
Estimates: $8 million- $18 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

April 15th 2016

-Barbershop: The Next Cut-
Estimates: $22 million- $61 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Criminal-
Estimates: $7 million- $18 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Jungle Book-
Estimates: $87 million- $270 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

April 22nd 2016

-Elvis and Nixon-
Estimates: $5 million- $14 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Huntsman: Winter’s War-
Estimates: $27 million- $65 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

April 29th 2016

-Keanu-
Estimates: $16 million- $49 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Mother’s Day-
Estimates: $20 million- $70 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Ratchet and Clank-
Estimates: $11 million- $34 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

MAY
After a relatively muted May 2015 while leaving out Avengers: Age of Ultron (and Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max), it seems likely that 2016 will be massive. Several anticipated sequels, including what seems likely to be an Avengers film not having the Avengers title, Neighbours 2, Alice in Wonderland 2 and X-Men: Apocalypse are zooming back into theaters, all more established franchises than last year’s pack. Oh, and Angry Birds might perform too.

Full Monthly Preview
Monthly Results

May 6th 2016

-Captain America: Civil War- (Long Range Forecast)
Estimates: $170 million- $490 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

May 13th 2016

-Kidnap-
Estimates: $15 million- $41 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Money Monster-
Estimates: $20 million- $66 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Darkness-
Estimates: $11 million- $24 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

May 20th 2016

-Angry Birds-
Estimates: $45 million- $160 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising-
Estimates: $53 million- $162 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Nice Guys-
Estimates: $12 million- $27 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

May 27th 2016

-Alice Through the Looking Glass-
Estimates: $66 million- $185 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-X-Men: Apocalypse-
Estimates: $109 million- $255 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

JUNE
June 2015 was massive, with Jurassic World aiming at $650 million, and Inside Out looking towards $350 million. There won’t be such massive openings this year, though there will be much more sleeper hits and established franchises, once again. TMNT 2, Independence Day 2 and Finding Dory look forward to besting last year’s crop, but lets not forget The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 are expected to be hits as well (though not that big). The next test on whether video game franchises can succeed will begin, with Warcraft launching. And Dwayne Johnson is back, this time with Kevin Hart.

Full Monthly Preview
Monthly Results

June 3rd 2016

-Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows-
Estimates: $82 million- $204 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping-
Estimates: $6 million- $14 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Me Before You-
Estimates: $9 million- $26 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Bye Bye Man-
Estimates: $8 million- $23 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

June 10th 2016

-The Conjuring 2-
Estimates: $46 million- $110 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Now You See Me 2-
Estimates: $35 million- $101 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Warcraft-
Estimates: $55 million- $155 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

June 17th 2016

-Central Intelligence-
Estimates: $46 million- $151 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Finding Dory-
Estimates: $101 million- $380 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

June 24th 2016

-Independence Day: Resurgence-
Estimates: $120 million- $340 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-Free State of Jones-
Estimates: $10 million- $37 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

-The Shallows-
Estimates: $5 million- $11 million end gross
Actuals:
Second Weekend Dip:
Opening Weekend Percentage of Total:

JULY
This month is as packed as 2015’s, but this time filled with more unknown entries. Bourne 5 and Star Trek 3 are looking to be the only familiar franchises returning (compared to last year’s MI5, Terminator, Magic Mike, Minions, and Marvel with Ant-Man), but sleeper hits are definitely filled to the brim. Ghostbusters and Illumination Entertainment’s follow-up to the Despicable Me franchise are scattered throughout the month, giving this month a shot at being as big as last year’s.

Full Monthly Preview
Monthly Results

July 1st 2016
(One Year From Now Preview) (Weekend Preview) (Weekend Results)

Films:
The BFG- $34 million- $120 million end gross
The Purge 3- $32 million- $65 million end gross
Tarzan- $40 million- $136 million end gross

July 8th 2016
(One Year From Now Preview) (Weekend Preview) (Weekend Results)

Films:
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates- $16 million- $49 million end gross
The Secret Life of Pets- $47 million- $160 million end gross
Star Trek Beyond- $82 million- $260 million end gross

July 15th 2016
(One Year From Now Preview) (Weekend Preview) (Weekend Results)

Films:
Ice Age 5- $35 million- $120 million end gross
La La Land- $4 million- $17 million end gross
The Lake- $9 million- $24 million end gross

July 22th 2016
(One Year From Now Preview) (Weekend Preview) (Weekend Results)

Films:
Ghostbusters- $47 million- $150 million end gross

July 29th 2016
(One Year From Now Preview) (Weekend Preview) (Weekend Results)

Films:
Bourne 5- $81 million- $271 million end gross

AUGUST (COMING SOON)

SEPTEMBER (COMING SOON)

OCTOBER (COMING SOON)

NOVEMBER (COMING SOON)

DECEMBER (COMING SOON)

Advertisements

6 thoughts on “2016 Box Office Forecast

  1. I think that the Secret Life of Pets has serious potential. Also Civil War can approach 500m domestic. Batman vs Superman is really tough to call. It can smash the box office or relatively tank depending on its quality. It’s genuinely a make or break kind of movie.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s