Box Office Forecast: Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys launches over Independence Day frame

Last week, Teddy Bears and Dinosaurs and Emotions. This week? Robots, Teddy Bears, Dinosaurs, Emotions and Male Strippers. Great, theres more joining in the party.

I’m a little late this week in releasing this preview, for the majority of wide releases are releasing into theaters on Wednesday, and I usually love to post my previews around 3 full days before the films launch, but well, at least this is still up. This weekend sees 2 (3?) new wide releases, but as per usual this summer, they will be entering in a really competitive frame, which is of course not that great for the filmmakers. Let’s take a look at them:

Terminator: Genisys

TERMINATOR: GENISYS
BOX OFFICE WEEKEND PREDICTION: $26 million ($44 million 5-days)
FINAL GROSS PREDICTION: $106 million

Terminator: Genisys has one message to convey- Arnold is back, like he promises, but it mostly does not deliver elsewhere. James Cameron praised it? Great, but it looks like he might have been part of the minority, or was paid to do so, as rotten tomatoes currently show a 27% approval rate. Which is even worse than Terminator: Salvation. Fans will definitely be having an uproar, after being hopeful that this latest reboot will hopefully bring back this old franchise to its glorious days. Unfortunately, this looks set to fail- despite bringing back Arnold, grosses for this franchise have been dropping installment after installment- it peaked with $204.8 million with the second, dropped to $150.37 million for the third, whereas the latest installment, released 6 years ago without any of the original cast, earned merely $125.32 million. Instead of reviving this franchise, it seems like it won’t do much better, instead deteriorating further. To only make things worse, nobody will be rushing over to watch this due to star power- Jai Courtney, Jason Clarke, Emilia Clarke, and even Arnold Schwarzenegger will be unable to carry this film on their own, as they have not proven to be reliable box office draws. One might argue that nostalgia might help push this film to greater heights, much like how Jurassic World did it, but lets face it- Jurassic World had fan-beloved trailers, while the marketing for this has been bad to say it kindly. Marketing has already spoiled almost every major plot twist in this film, and the casting hasn’t really made many happy either. This installment has, in other words, been criticized since day 1. That alone won’t help the callbacks to the first two installments evidently portrayed in the trailers. With all that I mentioned, I don’t really have high hopes for this film, and since Independence Day falls on a Saturday this time round, its going to be way more front-loaded. Im going below the wide estimate for this one, say $44 million 5-days, and $26 million on the weekend proper.

Magic Mike XXL

MAGIC MIKE XXL
BOX OFFICE WEEKEND PREDICTION: $28 million ($46 million 5-days)
FINAL PREDICTIONS: $115 million

For once, I really believe that this is going to beat Terminator. Yes, I’m not kidding. The sequel to the Magic Mike sequel has a lot going for it. Firstly, it has star Channing Tatum, whose popularity has only risen further in recent years. Apart from that, this film comes after a rather well-received first film, which always means word of mouth. Of course, before we speak too much, lets not forget that this film is opening in a much more competitive climate. With moviegoers spoilt with far too many choices, this one might underperform as well this weekend. I’m saying a more front-loaded Wednesday, where girls rush out once again to catch their male strippers, just like last time but being far more front-loaded, due to this being a sequel. Around $28 million on its first two days, before it grabs $46 million by weekend’s end. And that’s it.

Oh, and according to Boxofficemojo, theres apparently a wide release Faith of Our Fathers coming out this weekend as well, but until a theater count has been provided, I will be shying away from that one for now. For the holdovers, expect Jurassic World and Inside Out to hold up well, with Inside Out standing a chance to be dipping just 35-40% for this weekend, and Jurassic World to drop maybe around 40-45% this weekend. This weekend last year, Tammy and Deliver Us From Evil opened, with Transformers: Age of Extinction still at the front of the pack. It was the smallest Independent Day weekend in almost forever, where all the films combined couldn’t even earn more than $120 million, settling for $115.34 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction was tops with $37.05 million, after dropping a massive 63% from opening weekend, while Tammy was a distant second, with $21.6 million. This weekend will be far more packed, though it will not be possible for this to beat 2013’s $221.65 million and 2012’s $182.31 million. Here are my top 10 estimates:

1)Jurassic World- $32.17 million (-41%)
2)Inside Out- $31.92 million (-39%)
3)Magic Mike XXL- $28 million ($46 million 5-days) (NEW!!!)
4)Terminator: Genisys- $26 million ($44 million 5-days) (NEW!!!)

5)Ted 2- $18.1 million (-46%)
6)Max- $7.54 million (-38%)
7)Spy- $5.22 million (-34%)
8)San Andreas- $3.13 million (-42%)
9)Dope- $1.81 million (-35%)
10)Mad Max: Fury Road- $1.09 million (-38%)

Top 10 Predictions: $154.98 million (+34.4%)

Don’t be surprised if Magic Mike or Terminator manage to surpass my expectations- after all, I’m playing safe on the lower end here. If not, Jurassic World should probably get its fourth straight first (YAY). Join me next weekend for the anticipated mega release of Minions, Self/Less and The Gallows.

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