Box Office Forecast: Max and Ted 2 enter competitive weekend frame

Things aren’t gonna get worse. Instead, it’s the opposite that’s true.

This weekend sees one anticipated sequel- Ted 2, as well as an original family-adventure film about a dog that just returned from Afghanistan after being a army dog. Both are going to be seeing intense competition from Jurassic World and Inside Out. And that’s not just any competition, if you realised that both those holdovers managed above $90 million last weekend. Well, let’s get in depth.

Ted 2
TED 2
BOX OFFICE FORECAST: $57 million
END GROSS: $177 million

Yi-pee! Talking teddy bears are back again! After the original film became a smash sleeper hit in 2012, of course a sequel was going to be made. And that original film was rather well-received too. However, let’s not forget that this film is arriving in a time where the box office is far more competitive- Jurassic World and Inside Out are both going to probably earn over $50 million each this weekend, unlike back in 2012, where Magic Mike opened in second with over $39 million. Meanwhile, back in 2012, while the next two weeks brought the likes of Ice Age: Continental Drift and Amazing Spiderman, this year isn’t going to be any less slack either, with Terminator: Genisys and Magic Mike XXL set to grab away all the adult moviegoers. Which means more audience crossover. Of course, another factor going against this film has to be the fact that Seth MacFarlane has recently made a couple of bad moves- his turn as a Oscar host was widely criticized for being too outrageous, and his previous movie, Million Ways to Die in the West barely earned $42 million domestically, despite having the likes of Liam Neeson, Charlize Theron, Amanda Seyfried. Oh, and it wasn’t any better to critics. Of course, trailers have helped to sway some bad buzz away, showing that this film will probably be as fun as the original, and just a Mark Wahlberg and his teddy bear’s journey. Reviews aren’t in yet, so we can’t talk about them. With the above factors accounted in, I expect a large fanbase to turn up hastily over opening weekend to catch this sequel, before it dies quickly due to intense competition the next weekend and for the rest of July. After having built word of mouth for the first film, I expect this film to open slightly bigger than the first, and drop depending on how moviegoers view this sequel (is it good? Is it bad?). However, don’t expect this to have as much a gain as what the Hangover series managed from its first to its second installment- Hangover had much better word of mouth and reviews, and this one really isn’t showing signs of being as anticipated as that either.

Max
MAX
BOX OFFICE FORECAST: $15 million
END GROSS: $47 million

Okay, I’ll admit it first. This one’s going to be hard. I don’t know much about it, but I know that attention on films about the army (or the war in Afghanistan, or in this case, the dogs that happened to help out in the war) have been gaining attention lately, due to the war over in Iraq and Syria, as well the fact that American Sniper over performed to such a extent that it became the biggest film of last year (despite opening wide this year). Of course, the only thing preventing this from breaking out would be the fact that there isn’t any space for anymore family films- remember what happened a two years back, when Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University opened, and simply just decimated the chances of every animated movie opening after it from ever succeeding? Well, yes this film might be opening in between, but lets not forget that Inside Out opened bigger than that other Pixar movie, and Minions seems to be as anticipated, or even more than the previous film, despite serving as a spin-off. Simply meaning, moviegoers will probably give this a pass, and save up to bring their kids to a movie which they will enjoy much more. Of course, one never knows, sleeper hits are never easy to predict, but I’m not expecting this to have much of a presence at the box office, especially if there are already three massive films set to suck up more than $50 million each this weekend.

And that’s all for this weekend’s upcoming releases. The holdovers are much more exciting. For Jurassic World, last week’s hold came as a massive surprise, as no one expected it to hold up that well, especially with Inside Out sharing lots of the same audience (family audience). This previous weekend really showed that Jurassic World is already showing legs that early on, and will hopefully continue to hold up well going forward. Well, let’s just compare it with The Avengers, which dropped around 46% in its 3rd frame. Once again, Battleship and The Dictator are no match for Ted 2, but I am expecting this film to drop around 43%. Hopefully it can hold up that well. Meanwhile, for Inside Out, its more a matter of how well it holds up. Let’s look at other Pixar movies- Toy Story 3 dropped around 46.2% in its second weekend, after coming off a much bigger weekend, and due to its sequel status. Two years ago, Monsters University dropped 44.7% coming off a $82.4 million opening weekend, also a sequel and facing intense competition from Despicable Me 2. The last original Pixar movie, Brave, dropped 48.6% in its second weekend, coming off great but not superb reviews. Cars 2 dropped much bigger with 60%, but that was after horrible reviews, while Up dipped only 35% in its second weekend back in 2009, after earning similar reviews to Inside Out (and sharing the same director). However, due to Pixar’s popularity increasing in recent years, and due to how moviegoers are now more used to rushing out over opening weekend, Inside Out is expected to drop similarly to the sequels in recent years (fantastic reviews might make it a bit better). With this, I’m gauging around a 40-45% dip, say 42% from last weekend. Giving it around $52-53 million this weekend.

This weekend last year saw Transformers: Age of Extinction open to $100 million, being the sole wide release over the weekend. Everything else was quiet, with second going to 22 Jump Street, with $15.842 million. The top 10 grossed around $169.7 million, which will probably be close to what the top 3 alone will earn this weekend (Ted 2, Inside Out, Jurassic World). This weekend might even make it to become the third weekend in a row with $200 million earned among the top 10. Regardless, here are my top 10 estimates for this weekend:

1)Jurassic World- $60.7 million(-43%)
2)Ted 2- $57 million (NEW!!!)
3)Inside Out- $52.46 million (-42%)
4)Max- $15 million (NEW!!!)
5)Spy- $7.52 million (-33%)
6)San Andreas- $6.8 million (-22%)
7)Dope- $4.88 million (-20%)
8)Mad Max: Fury Road- $2.43 million (-20%)
9)Insidious: Chapter 3- $2.24 million (-45%)
10)Pitch Perfect 2- $2.22 million (-37%)

Top 10 Gross: $211.25 million (+24.5% year over year)

Check back next weekend for none other than the release of two highly anticipated sequels- Magic Mike XXL, and Terminator: Genisys.

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