Box Office Forecast: Jurassic World set to wreck the box office

After a few weeks of down weekend, its finally time for the box office to rebound. But when, you ask. Of course, why not this week? There might be just one film arriving at the box office nationwide this weekend, but its going to be massive. That film is no other than Jurassic World.

jurassic world
BOX OFFIC FORECAST: $127 million
END GROSS: $327 million end gross

Lets just say that Jurassic Park has been one of the most beloved franchises Hollywood has ever came across. Ever since Steven Spielberg brought us the first one 22 years ago, none of the sequels have been able to be as big a blockbuster as the first one. This week’s offering, a sequel of sorts, where the park is now fully functional, indeed brings a different angle, where the park is now fully open and filled with tourists not unlike that in a zoo. This difference alone will make fans drool- they have been waiting years, and the park wasn’t even open back then for the mass public. One thing that this film has propelling it is its new protagonist- Chris Pratt. Chris Pratt has been steadily rising up the ranks of Hollywood, ever since last year’s Guardians of the Galaxy introduced the world to him. He has developed a fan-following, one which probably will charge out to watch him this weekend. Trailers have built up on the nostalgia factor of this, while bringing out lots and lots of CGI and dinosaur action for the world to enjoy. Lets not forget that there isn’t any film at the theaters right now that is having that much of an impact- the next biggest film is probably Spy, which isn’t expected to earn more than $18 million in its second weekend, and these two films don’t even share an audience in the first place. Here’s a quick look at what the last three films grossed domestically opening weekend and their final gross.

Jurassic Park- $47,026,828 opening weekend- $357,067,947 end gross ($699,991,400 inflated)
Jurassic Park: Lost World- $72,132,785 opening weekend- $229,086,679 end gross ($405,268,800 inflated)
Jurassic Park 3- $50,771,645 opening weekend- $181,171,875 end gross ($259,914,400 inflated)

As you can see, the grosses have been deteriorating with each installment, but this one seeks to reverse the trend, hoping to end up somewhere between the second and third installment after inflation (first and second if you do not account for inflation). This franchise has been dormant for the last 14 years, and older fans will rush out to see what director Colin Trevorrow brings to the table for this 21st century re-imagination. Meanwhile, younger teens and those in their 20s will probably watch this as a form of escape, due to there being no more CGI heavy action-blockbuster, at least until Terminator opens a month later. Tracking for this has already shown that this film has the potential to open somewhere between the $100-$130 million range, similar to Man of Steel- for this, I will be sticking with the higher end of the expectations, and boldly predicting a $127 million opening weekend. (The end gross is highly dependent on the reviews, which are still unavailable at the time of posting).

This weekend last year saw the Jump Street-How to Train Your Dragon combo lifting the box office up with massive openings. 22 Jump Street opened in first with $57 million, while How To Train Your Dragon 2 opened with a massive but disappointing $49.45 million. Third went to Maleficent, far below in third with $18.5 million. The top 10 earned a combined $176.8 million, which will be barely beaten if Jurassic World opens as big as I think it will. For this weekend, expect a massive drop for almost all films, with Jurassic World set to dominate.

1)Jurassic World- $127 million (NEW!!!)
2)Spy- $16.2 million (-46%)
3)San Andreas- $11.9 million (-55%)
4)Insidious Chapter 3- $8.5 million (-63%)
5)Mad Max: Fury Road- $4.07 million (-49%)
6)Pitch Perfect 2- $3.85 million (-50%)
7)Entourage- $3.75 million (-64%)
8)Tomorrowland- $3.23 million (-54%)
9)Avengers: Age of Ultron- $2.91 million (-53%)
10)Aloha- $1.39 million (-58%)

Top 10 Gross: $182.8 million (+3.4%)

That’s all for this weekend. Check back next week for my forecast on Pixar’s first film in 2 years, Inside Out! Meanwhile, remember to check out my 2015 box office preview for the rest of the year. It has been updated till the end of August, so remember to share your thoughts as well!


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