Box Office Forecast: Edge of Tomorrow and Fault in Our Stars try to snatch Maleficient’s glory

June’s here, and by now, summer has already kicked into full gear. This weekend, two films will release, namely, Edge of Tomorrow and Fault in our Stars, both in which will attempt to take first place away from Maleficient. However, this weekend is going to be noticeably quieter than the last few, with there being no major blockbusters releasing this weekend.

edge of tomorrow
EDGE OF TOMORROW
BOX OFFICE FORECAST: $35 million
END GROSS: $94 million

Well, that’s the problem. This film isn’t even tracking that well, with early tracking suggesting this film opens around $25-28 million. That’s going to be a major blow for Warner Bros., considering this film’s budget is at $178 million. Tom Cruise has been seeing his stardom fading over the past decade, with there being hardly any films of his standing out (Mission Impossible being the sole exception). Most of his films have underperformed, and him coming back to sci-fi last year with Oblivion really didn’t click. He’s back again this year, and despite the fact that reviews have been really positive (91% from 66 reviews), saying that this film is one of the best sci-fi films in recent memory, and his performance in the film is one of the best showings from him yet, it seems like moviegoers are still wondering whether to catch this or not. Of course, that doesn’t mean this film won’t surprise- it just doesn’t look like its going to. I haven’t added the fact that there are plenty of big budget films already in the market, and moviegoers might be exhausted and decide to pass on this one. With intense competition, this film will likely struggle (furthermore, it’s an original film, which will turn off some people). Early numbers from places that already have this film aren’t that great, and I’m not expecting domestic numbers to be a lot different. I am predicting that this opens a bit lower than Oblivion, though not by much, and will ultimately be rescued by word of mouth.

the fault in our stars
FAULT IN OUR STARS
BOX OFFICE FORECAST: $51 million
END GROSS: $120 million

Many will think that I’m going way too high here. I mean, come on, it’s just a romance movie, and rarely do they explode at the box office, right?

Wrong, according to what social media is saying. This film has one of the biggest buzz ever for a film (just look at twitter), and it’s trailer somehow managed to clinch the title of most liked video on youtube, which is definitely REALLY BIG. Furthermore, the marketing has been really successful on this one. Shailene Woodley will also be remembered by many teenage girls for her lead role in Divergent, which went after a similar audience as this one. This film is also coming into the weekend with a dedicated fan base. Early tracking suggests a big film, with this film outselling The Vow and all other comparable romance movies. With that, I’m going to be a bit optimistic about this one, and am going to just say that this opens in the high 40s or low 50s, but die out really quickly.

This weekend last year saw only two new openers, The Purge, which opened to $34 million, and The Internship, which opened to $17 million. The top 10 earned a combined $141.15 million, which I think is going to be rather easy to beat with a bunch of stronger openers (hopefully). With that, here are my top 10 for the weekend:

1)Fault in our Stars-$51 million (NEW!!!)
2)Maleficient- $37 million
3)Edge of Tomorrow-$35 million (NEW!!!)
4)X-Men: Days of Future Past- $16.1 million
5)A Million Ways to Die in the West- $8.5 million
6)Godzilla- $5.6 million
7)Blended- $4.4 million
8)Neighbours- $4.3 million
9)The Amazing Spiderman 2- $1.8 million
10)Million Dollar Arm- $1.7 million
Top 10- $165.4 million

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