Box Office Forecast: Noah set to flood theaters, Sabotage attempts to counter-program

This weekend will see a couple of films opening or expanding, with Noah almost set to lead the crowd. Sabotage tries to bring back Arnold’s fans, after a lackluster string of films last year, while The Raid 2 tries to be as successful, or even better than its predecessor. Meanwhile, Bad Words expands to 600 theaters. This box office forecast will only be covering Sabotage and Noah in detail, while the other two will be mentioned briefly at the bottom of the analysis.

Before continuing, why not check out the box office report for Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted here? Also, don’t forget to check out the 2014 Box Office Forecast, which is being updated occasionally.

This weekend last year, GI Joe Retaliation was an immediate hit, earning $40.5 million, good enough for first place. Tyler Perry’s Temptation surprised, earning $21.6 million, while The Host opened in 6th with $10.6 million, easily a disappointment. The top 10 earned $137.4 million, a figure this weekend will have difficulty beating, which means an end of the streak where this year beats last year.

noah
NOAH
FACEBOOK: 496,783 likes
TWITTER: est. 79,500
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 76% from 17 reviews
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 97% from 48,165 votes
BOX OFFICE FORECAST: $49 million

Noah is coming right after Son of God and God’s Not Dead broke out seemingly out of nowhere, despite them having not much of a potential early on. You can see how much the Christian crowd is waiting for movies which appeal to them- Son of God, despite just recycling most of it’s material from The Bible mini-series, actually opened to $25.6 million, while just this past weekend, God’s Not Dead opened to an amazing $9.2 million from just 780 theaters. Noah has several advantages, though. It, unlike the above two mentioned films, has a great rotten tomatoes score of 76% from 17 reviews (the other two are sitting at 40% and 22% respectively). This film has a well respected director in the name of Darren Aronofsky, and the marketing has done a great job in reminding you that he is the one that brought you Black Swan. Meanwhile, the rest of the cast shouldn’t be scoffed at either, with Russell Crowe, Jennifer Connelly, Anthony Hopkins, Emma Watson and Logan Lerman all starring. This one also is being positioned as a blockbuster epic which appeals to mainstream moviegoers, with trailers all showing great CGI. Marketing has definitely been widespread enough, and the film definitely has been successful in it’s approach, with overseas numbers coming from its first few territories stating that the film has been earning more than Gravity in the same territories.

With all those above factors in mind, audience fatigue must also be taken note of. The Christian crowd might already be tired after watching other shows of the same genre, and will pass on this one. Therefore, I currently expect an opening weekend of around $49 million. This number might change throughout the week so keep checking back.

sabotage
SABOTAGE
FACEBOOK: 117,573 likes
TWITTER: est. 17,200
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: NIL
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 93% from 7,341 votes
BOX OFFICE FORECAST: $14 million

Yeah, it’s Arnold again in yet another action film, after duds Escape Plan and The Last Stand. Arnold has been having a hard time over the past 1 year trying to bring people back into theaters to catch him in his signature genre, and it’s hard to picture this film as any much of a difference. However, I am currently expecting this film to be opening slightly higher. Why, you might ask.

That’s because Arnold isn’t alone this time. Yes, you might say, Sylvester Stallone was in Escape Plan and it still did not do much anyway, but this one brings in a star-studded cast which consists of Terrence Howard, Josh Holloway, Sam Worthington, Joe Maganiello and more. This film is also being helmed by the writer of Training Day and the director of End of Watch, which makes this film one to watch, as both those films turned out to be great action flicks (the latter was better received, but didn’t earn that much). I am currently anticipating an opening slightly above or similar to End of Watch here, so expect this one to bring in around $14 million this weekend, which is really enough for third.

Apart from the above 2 mentioned films, this weekend will also see the wide expansion of Bad Words into an estimated 600 theaters. The film has been struggling in limited release, and I don’t see this film having much hopes either. I will say that it barely misses the top 10 this weekend. Meanwhile, The Raid 2 will try to win over moviegoers, and early reviews are definitely saying that this is one successful follow-up which doesn’t disappoint. However, the opening weekend gross really can’t be determined until the actual theater count is given later in the week.

Finally, here’s the top 10 estimates:
1)Noah-$49 million
2)Divergent-$25.9 million
3)Sabotage-$14 million
4)Muppets Most Wanted- $8.6 million
5)The Grand Budapest Hotel- $7.6 million
6)Mr. Peabody and Sherman- $7.1 million
7)God’s Not Dead- $4.3 million
8)300: Rise of an Empire- $4.1 million
9)Non-Stop- $3.9 million
10)Need for Speed- $3.8 million
Top 10 Estimate: $128.3 million
Last Year Top 10: $137.4 million

Thanks for reading this box office preview! Feel free to comment if you wanna state your predictions and thoughts. Meanwhile, check back next week for the box office forecast of none other than Captain America: Winter Soldier.

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