Box Office Forecast: Divergent strives to be next Hunger Games; Muppets return

This weekend sees two new films open in wide release in at least 3000 theaters- Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted. This will most likely be another big weekend at the box office after a relatively quiet one last weekend, which saw Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club both underperforming.

divergent
DIVERGENT
FACEBOOK: 653,641 likes
TWITTER: est. 178,000
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 25% from 8 reviews
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 97% from 36,909 votes
BOX OFFICE ESTIMATE: $81 million

Divergent is the next big attempt on adapting another YA Novel. However, this one is expected to open bigger than several duds over the past one year, like Beautiful Creatures, The Host, Mortal Instruments: City of Bones etc. That might be something intriguing, you might say, considering the recent trend of every YA Novel other than Hunger Games underperforming, but this one is coming from Lionsgate, or rather the same studio that brought you Hunger Games, and they definitely know how to produce a hit in the form of a YA adaptation. This one is also supported by a strong supporting cast which include Kate Winslet, Miles Teller, Maggie Q, Jai Courtney etc. However, even with all these names, and a massive fan base that is sure to turn out, it is unrealistic for this to become as big as The Hunger Games, as the latter franchise actually sold much more books pre-release. Divergent also suffers from bad reviews- from 8 reviews, the current critic rating is only 25%, far below the 80s range earned by Hunger Games, and even the 40s which Twilight fell under, and that will definitely be worrying, as this film might have a huge drop off for the next few weekends, and have a lack of word of mouth. There has also been plenty of marketing for this one- let’s just hope that this film will be review-proof, and that the marketing has at least appealed to some people unaware of the book that this film is adapting.

Early tracking suggests that this film will open in around the same range as Twilight, and I no doubt believe that this will happen. My current predictions for this film’s opening is at $81 million, though that number might change later in the week so keep checking back.

muppets most wanted
MUPPETS MOST WANTED
FACEBOOK: 6,518,869 likes
TWITTER: est. 197,000
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 69% from 13 reviews
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 95% from 33,593 votes
BOX OFFICE ESTIMATE: $35 million

Muppet: Most Wanted follows the really well-received and well-loved original which released a couple of years back. That one was phenomenal, and proved that there were still large droves of Muppet lovers out there. This film, however, is currently in a somewhat worse position. Firstly, this film has intense competition from Mr. Peabody and Sherman, The LEGO Movie and Frozen, which are still earning quite a large sum of money. This quickly brings into mind what happened late last summer, where Monsters University and Despicable Me 2 combined to make almost every animated movie afterwards underperform. Besides, apart from the beloved Muppet characters, the human characters one remember from the last film are all gone, instead being replaced by a new cast consisting of Ty Burrell, Tina Fey and Ricky Gervais. I can’t deny that the marketing has successfully managed to parody several films, which definitely help to build up buzz over this film.

With all the word of mouth from the first film, and the positive critic response for this second installment, I am currently expecting $35 million this weekend for this film, which is higher than the three- day opening of the first installment (it must be noted that the original was released on Thanksgiving weekend, which means that that film’s weekend was spread out over 5 days, while this film’s opening weekend will only be a normal 3-day weekend)

With all those in mind, here are my current top 10 predictions for the weekend:

1)Divergent- $81 million
2)Muppets: Most Wanted- $35 million

3)Mr. Peabody and Sherman- $13.5 million
4)300: Rise of an Empire- $9.8 million
5)Need for Speed- $8.2 million
6)The LEGO Movie- $5.2 million
7)Non-Stop- $5.1 million
8)The Grand Budapest Hotel- $4.1 million
9)Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club- $3.6 million
10)Son of God- $2.9 million
Top 10 Gross: $168.4 million
Last Year’s Top 10 Gross: $127.3 million

Before leaving, remember to check out my 2014 Box Office Predictions page, which detail my predictions on every single film coming out this year! To find out how Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s latest flick fared, you can check out the box office forecast by clicking here. Remember to check back next week for my predictions on Noah!

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3 thoughts on “Box Office Forecast: Divergent strives to be next Hunger Games; Muppets return

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