Box Office Forecast: Horror spin-off Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones tries to lead first weekend of the year

Well, sorry for being a bit late, but still Happy New Year! I hope you had a great year, and I wish that 2014 will be a better year for everyone!

Well, the first weekend of the year is always quiet, and always doesn’t fail to make an impact. This weekend had over the past few years opened with a horror movie, evident from 2012’s The Devil Inside and 2013’s Texas Chainsaw 3D. This weekend won’t be much of a difference, with number 1 expected to easily go to the only new film, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. For a brief look at last year’s numbers, the year of 2013 arrived with first place going to Texas Chainsaw 3D with $21.7 million, closely followed by Django Unchained, which ruled with $20.0 million. The top 10 grossed an estimated $116.2 million, a figure this weekend should at least be able to match.

paranormal activity the marked ones
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ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 75% from 4 reviews

One must actually wonder after Paranormal Activity 4 arrrived- is Paranormal Activity finally dead? After not seeing it in theaters Halloween the next year, you must have thought that Paranormal Activity was gone for good. Well, not really.

Apart from having another direct sequel this year, a latin spin-off had actually been in the works. One must wonder whether Paranormal Activity will still attract, but one thing tells me that the trailers for this has been successfully creepy. Nothing’s change- the found-footage style is still pretty much quite similar- except that the cast has been practically replaced totally.

Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones arrives about a year and so after the previous installment disappointed right out of the gate, which only had a 24% rotten tomatoes score and $29 million opening weekend, which was noticeably lower than the previous installments. People have started to move on to explore other horror options. This film will aim to be much better, though, with early reviews praising the film positively (at least 3/4 of them)

No matter what odds there are against the latest spin-off of the horror franchise, there is one thing that still exists- the film franchise’s fan base. Mostly Hispanic, this film will heavily appeal to that crowd in a month of little big releases. The film will also benefit from the lack of horror movies in the marketplace, at least until Devil’s Due opens a week later. Like the previous film, which earned over 53.8% of it’s opening weekend on it’s first day, I expect this film to have a equally front-loaded weekend and opening day. It is unrealistic to expect it to open bigger than Paranormal Activity 4, due to this film straying away from the previous films’ formula. Instead, I believe that the film is looking at an opening somewhere in the ballpark of mid 20s or perhaps around the number Texas Chainsaw 3D opened last year, considering both were films from well-known horror movie franchises.

With that, here are my top 10 predictions for this weekend. Feel free to have a say in the comments below (isn’t that the reason why comments exist in the first place?)

1)Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones- $25.6 million
2)Frozen- $22.0 million
3)The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- $18 million
4)American Hustle- $14.7 million
5)Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues- $11.5 million
6)The Wolf of Wall Street- $11.3 million
7)Saving Mr. Banks- $10.9 million
8)The Secret Life of Walter Mitty- $7.5 million
9)The Hunger Games: Catching Fire- $6.7 million
10)47 Ronin- $4.6 million
Top 10 Total: $132.8 million

With that, Happy New Year, and have a great year ahead! If you would like to have a look at our very early predictions for the whole year of 2014, you can click here. For 2015, you can click here. The next time I’m back, be prepared to have a deep analysis on 2013, along with my forecast for 2014, which will be divided into several post.

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