Sorry for the lack of updates on the site lately- I have been busy with quite a few things, and this period will resume next week, when I will have something big to attend to. Therefore, expect next week’s box office forecast to be up extremely early, maybe Saturday or Sunday, which will be the lucrative Christmas period.
This weekend, we see two films opening wide- one on Wednesday (already released), namely Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, which has already opened to $8.1 million on Wednesday alone, and on Friday, Walking With Dinosaurs tries to be the kiddy version of Avatar, opening in 3200 theaters. Meanwhile, two potential big films also expand which played well to art house audiences this previous weekend, namely American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks.
If you were wondering whether this year can beat last year’s top 10 gross, let’s see- the situation last year was as follows- Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey stayed first with $36.9 million, and Jack Reacher, The Guilt Trip, This is 40 and Monsters Inc. 3D all opening in over 2000 theaters to varying degrees. It will definitely be easy to beat this year, with Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug alone probably being enough to be behemoths.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Rotten Tomatoes Score:78% from 112 reviews
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score:78% from 77,194 votes
Box Office Forecast:$31 million 3 day, $46 million 5 day
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues is definitely one hard film to guess when talking about it’s box office, considering it really was modestly popular at best (it only earned $85.3 million domestically for the first film), until the DVD came out and this film became a legend to behold. Today, it’s fan base definitely has improved a lot, and it can be said that the characters are truly beloved. There is little doubt that critics are already starting to love this film- the film has a 78% rotten tomatoes score based on 112 reviews. Another factor which has to be put into consideration is the star’s popularity- this film might have made their career more significant, but it definitely is true that their career has spiraled upwards over the past few years. Advertising has been very big, with me already seeing a teaser as early as last year. However, one would not expect this film’s fan base to rush out, especially since older people are usually more reserved and less of a fanboy, and also because this is the pre-Christmas week, which means that people will most probably only rush out during or after Christmas and New Year, and means this film will receive a stronger multiple. This is already a success as of now, with the film earning $8.1 million on it’s first day. I am currently predicting a $31 million three-day weekend, and $46 million for the full 5-day frame.
Walking With Dinosaurs might be crowned the next Avatar by the movie studio, but in reality, it is nothing like it- reviews have been totally evil to it, giving it a 31% score from 16 reviews. With an interesting premise, and the studio backing it with a decent marketing, I guess that this will be the number 1 choice for kids this weekend, even though this film will have to fare against holiday films like the Hobbit sequel, Frozen and Saving Mr. Banks. Marketing has been appealing enough, and since children films are usually review-proof, I am currently predicting this film to hit $17 million this weekend.
American Hustle is in an interesting position- the film opened small last weekend in 6 locations and earned $740,455, representing a strong $123,409 per-theater average. That is much higher than David O. Russell’s The Fighter’s $75,003 per-theater average. Of course, David O. Russell has become a director to watch out for, considering both his previous two films have been awards favorites, and this film looks likely to join the ranks of the awards season, with 7 Golden Globe Nominations already announced for this film. American Hustle currently has a 95% rating from 137 reviews, making this yet another universally beloved film. Of course, this film is having a really similar pattern with last year’s Silver Linings Playbook, which opened small and ended up securing over $130 million domestically. David O. Russell has also gathered a rather impressive cast from his previous two films, with the likes of Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper and Jeremy Renner, Robert De Niro and more. I am currently predicting an opening weekend in the range of $18 million for this film.
And I was thinking of a Disney film starring Walt Disney himself. Now I get to see it live, on the big screen.
Saving Mr. Banks also boded well in its limited debut last weekend, earning around $413,373 from 16 screens for a per-theater average of $27,558. That, however, doesn’t affect it’s performance this weekend, for that film was never meant to appeal much to art house audiences. Saving Mr. Banks is hoping to snatch away families this weekend to see a real story of Walt Disney, but unfortunately, this film had to pick a release date shared with Walking With Dinosaurs, which had 3D and dinosaurs in it (both obviously appeal to children, especially the latter). Reviews will definitely boost the film’s performance, with a current 80% rating from 143 reviews. I am currently predicting $14 million for the full weekend for the film.
Here is my current top 10 estimates for this weekend. Once again, the films listed above will be in bold:
1)Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues- $31 million ($46 million 5-days)
2)The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- $30.2 million
3)American Hustle- $18 million
4)Frozen- $17.1 million
5)Walking With Dinosaurs- $17 million
6)Saving Mr. Banks- $14 million
7)Tyler Perry’s A Madea’s Christmas- $8.8 million
8)The Hunger Games: Catching Fire- $8.2 million
9)Thor: The Dark World- $2.0 million
10)Out of the Furnace- $1.4 million
Top 10: $147.7 million