Box Office Forecast: Best Man Holiday not going to prove a threat to Thor

November has arrived, and this is probably going to be a quiet weekend in a while for new movie openers in such a packed month. Only one new opener is set to arrive, in the name of Best Man Holiday. Why so quiet, you would ask. That might mainly be Wolf of Wall Street’s fault- it backed out at the last minute, and instead packed the already packed Christmas to do it’s business. Despite being the only new opener and perhaps the only comedy in the market at the moment that will create a bit of awareness, Thor: The Dark World should most likely continue it’s rampage and bring peace to the other nine films.

the best man holiday
THE BEST MAN HOLIDAY
FACEBOOK: 1,310,838 LIKES (SHARED WITH FIRST FILM)
TWITTER: 5,097 FOLLOWERS
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: NIL
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 93% FROM 12,068 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $14.5 MILLION (FIRST BET)

Best Man Holiday has both factors going against it, and going with it. Let’s start with the good factors- the film is the only film appealing to it’s potential demographic, the African-American crowd, with it’s dominant black cast. It serves as the only film in the market releasing this weekend, and probably the only comedy going to make a big impact, considering Last Vegas and Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa are already well into their run. The other thing is, it’s a sequel, and this is a crowded and packed month where moviegoers usually rush out into cineplexes (comedies might not get affected by this boost, though). Now, the things going against it- the first film, The Best Man, only earned a meagre $34 million. That was 14 years ago, and it might have faded from several’s minds already, considering it didn’t make much of an impact.

No matter how well it does, it has absolutely no hopes at all of attaining first place this weekend, as Thor: The Dark World will continue to earn the mid 40s this weekend. That figure would be good for this film, but that would be unreachable. Let’s look at another film- Think Like a Man. It was a generally succesful film targeting a similar audience which was released in April, but it was adapted from what seems like a book, and came at a much quieter time. Another film to look at would be The Butler- it had the benefit of an Oscar run identical to The Help, was released in summer, and has a star-studded cast consisting of Oprah Winfrey. Those two films opened to $33.6 million and $24.6 million respectively, which seems unreachable for this film. However, it will definitely be able to bring in more money than Baggage Claim, which faltered and opened to a pathetic $9 million. My current bet stays at $14.5 million, and it’s end gross will definitely at least match the first film’s end gross, considering the years of ticket price inflation is at it’s favour.

Here are my current top 10 estimates. This time last year, the final episode of the Twilight franchise opened to north of $141 million, and the films all combined to earn north of $250 million. You can be rest assured that this weekend will absolutely not hit that number, nor will they even match the final Twilight’s opening weekend numbers of $141 million.

1)Thor: The Dark World- $45.1 million
2)The Best Man Holiday- $14.5 million
3)Free Birds- $7.5 million
4)Last Vegas- $7.3 million
5)Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- $6.5 million
6)Gravity- $5.8 million
7)Ender’s Game- $5.0 million
8)12 Years a Slave- $4.5 million
9)Captain Phillips- $4.0 million
10)About Time- $3.2 million
TOP 10 ESTIMATES: $93.2 MILLION
LAST YEAR TOP 1O: $239.2 MILLION

Check back soon for this weekend’s box office report! Before leaving this site, remember to participate in the site’s weekly poll if you have not so we can know your most anticipated film of the month, and also remember to like the site’s facebook page, which can be accessed in the sidebar on your right. See you soon!

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