November 2013 Box Office Preview

Sorry for this coming late, I really apologise for the total lack of updates, more updates are coming around the corner so check back!
Yet another month is about to come to an end, and with tradition, this site shall once again be back at this- the monthly box office preview. This post will just give a brief analysis on each film going for wide release in the month of November, and give our current predicted gross for both opening weekend and the end gross of the film. You can also check out the site’s Holiday Season Box Office Preview here, and also come back weekly for the weekly box office forecast, where we will be giving a more in depth and thorough look at the films releasing over the weekend. Meanwhile, here we start!

The first weekend of November is a jump-start to a packed and big month, with three films entering nationwide release- Ender’s Game, Free Birds and Last Vegas. By the time of this post, our weekly box office forecast which is more in-depth should already be out, and you can check it out here. Ender’s Game is a film with a lot of potential, with it’s promising cast consisting the likes of Ben Kingsley and Harrison Ford, and it’s well-known source material. However, as like previous YA novels this year have shown, apart from famed books like The Hunger Games and Twilight, no YA novels have really caught the world by storm, and have all underperformed badly. Add that with this year being a bad year for sci-fi movies (count Gravity as an exception), and we have got bad news on our hand. However, one bright light would be that the film is tracking ahead of similar films, which might be a good sign for this film tracking forward.
Before getting too naggy up there, to add value to the box office forecast weekly, I shall be posting less in depth forecasts on each film from now on. Free Birds comes right after Hollywood learnt a lesson to not throw animated movies at the audience before they start turning back less profits film after film. It has been at least a full month since the Cloudy sequel captivated audience worldwide- that time is over, and it seems like Free Birds will headstart the holiday season. This film should at least do well moderately before Frozen opens, but moviegoers might give this a wait before the bigger animated movies in the season open.
Last Vegas is a film which I can describe simply as a ‘desperate Hangover remake with old people which is less funny or interesting’. Why? Reviews are bad (not that bad), and trailers aren’t funny, or not even as big a scale as The Hangover. What does it show? Old people heading to Last Vegas and enjoying themselves. Anyone can do that, and the only possible reason I find people heading for this film is to support their favourite stars, or see them together.

The week after sees Thor: The Dark World obliterating everything before it. And About Time expanding nationwide, hoping to find an audience. Thor: The Dark World is undeniably already a success, and bars are high after Iron Man 3 built on the good-will of The Avengers to improve drastically on it’s predecessor. However, things are different here- Iron Man is Marvel’s favourite character. Thor, though, brings back Loki and the original film’s cast, which might stir things up a little. Expect this to bring up pleasant business.
About Time tries to steal moviegoers interested in a romance movie, as it might well be the only film in recent memory that is a romance. Expect this to be sweet, though I don’t really see it opening that big- maybe 2000 theaters would be the bar here.

Come November 15, the weekend seems like a week for catching up on previous movies, as practically no film other than The Best Man Holiday is taking the lucrative month’s spot. That seems really quiet and unlikely, and you can blame it on the sudden shift in release dates for Wolf of Wall Street, which was supposed to steal the show for the weekend. The Best Man Holiday is a comedy which will definitely aim to be a successful counter programmer, but I just have a feeling that this film won’t open that well. It might star a totally African-American cast, which alone can possibly bring in a large crowd of that demographic (look at Think Like A Man), but that was a special exception.

November 22nd is when things start to pick up big, when Delivery Man and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire premiere. The show-stealer would definitely be the latter, but Delivery Man seems to have enough potential to be big. Vince Vaughn is perhaps, trying to show that he is still worthy after The Internship did not do as well as thought, but this film will most likely be marketed and sold due to this being the only major comedy of the month, apart from The Best Man Holiday. However, do expect slightly smaller business if The Best Man Holiday opens bigger than expected- after all, both are aiming for a similar audience.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire tries to reclaim the first film’s glory, opening roughly a year and a half after the first film. That might seem like a long wait, but this film is tracking much better than the first, and it definitely is good to see that the marketing exactly mirrors the first film’s. Francis Lawrence has a much better belt to his name, and this film costs significantly more, making me think that this film is definitely worth it’s price. Hopefully, tracking suggests that it can open between Iron Man 3 and The Avengers, and I too think that that is definitely possible. For now, let’s just seat and relax before the daunting date comes.

Films open on the Wednesday the 26th instead of the usual Friday practice the upcoming week, and we shall see 4 films releasing and one expanding nationwide. Black Nativity, Frozen, Homefront and Oldboy are all premiering, but none are expected to take the crown from the Hunger Games sequel. Nor is Philomena, also expanding, going to do so.

Frozen is definitely a interesting film. After last year’s Wreck It Ralph and Tangled from a few years back, moviegoers are trying to put Disney as a good animation studio yet again even without Pixar in the backing. Frozen is from the producers of Tangled (correct me if I’m wrong), and it seems to have lots of potential. The marketing has been intensive, so expect this to open well.

Oldboy comes from the classic asian film, and this is more of a remake, but one which comes from Hollywood. It will not scare up humongous business, but Josh Brolin is reputable, and therefore do not underestimate him. The other films shall not be covered here, not because I don’t want to, but because there is hardly anything I know about them (I have not done my research). Expect a potential update if I want to update this post with the forecasts for them.

Here comes the end of the post, and like all previous monthly forecasts, here are my brief estimates for all the films. Please note that the first number reflects the opening weekend predictions, while the second reflects my end gross estimate.
(* means 5-day weekend)
Ender’s Game- $36 million- $90 million end gross
Last Vegas- $14 million- $41 million end gross
Free Birds- $19 million- $65 million end gross
Thor: The Dark World- $101 million- $275 million end gross
About Time- $8 million- $27 million end gross
The Best Man Holiday- $14 million- $50 million end gross
Delivery Man- $21 million- $66 million end gross
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire- $189 million- $400 million end gross
Frozen- $41 million- $150 million end gross
Oldboy- $15 million- $26 million end gross
Homefront- $10 million- $19 million end gross
Black Nativity- $6 million- $14 million end gross
Philomena- $4 million- $14 million end grossThis year’s pack since to have definite front-runners, but apart from the 3 blockbusters above, it seems like the rest don’t have much potential in them, unlike last year, which had 7 films cross the $100 million mark. Therefore, expect this to be in a close running with last year, or fall behind.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s