Box Office Forecast: Ender’s Game to invade all others for first, ‘Free’ Birds and ‘Las’t ‘Vegas’ to pit out

UPDATE 1: Okay, the midnight numbers are out, and Ender’s Game earned $1.4 million, which is more than After Earth. It is currently safe to say that Ender’s Game will earn at least $30 million this weekend. Also, the final rotten tomato numbers, social media index etc. have been updated with the latest numbers.
This coming weekend at the box office, three films will be releasing for the first time in the US, namely Ender’s Game, Free Birds and Last Vegas. For a brief recap of what happened last weekend, Gravity finally lost it’s first place status with a $20.3 million, as the position drifted away to old grandpa in the form of Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, which earned $32 million. Nothing else made much significance, and thus will be covered more in depth in the box office report. This weekend last year saw Wreck It Ralph and Flight releasing. With much better holdovers, this year stands a chance to at least fall even with last year. Let’s begin!

ender's game
ENDER’S GAME
FACEBOOK: 137,742 LIKES
TWITTER: 9,421 FOLLOWERS
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 63% RATING FROM 110 CRITICS
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 97% FROM 44,544 VOTES (AS OF POST TIME)
ROTTEN TOMATOES LIKE INDEX: 76%, AVERAGE RATING: 3.9/5 FROM 47,973 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $34.5 MILLION (FIRST BET)

Ender’s Game is not that fortunate to be releasing in 2013. Why that feud against a sci-fi film based on a popular novel in a big year at the movies. Let’s face the facts. Sci-fi isn’t having a great year at the box office, with noticeable disappointments like Oblivion and Pacific Rim only earned $30+ million on opening weekend, despite heavy marketing and awareness, while other films like After Earth fared much worse. (Elysium was moderate) Only one film has been standing brightly in the midst- Gravity, but unfortunately, instead of benefiting the film, it will most likely instead harm the film’s performance, due to it’s dominance at the box office even up till now. Ender’s Game, however, has the benefit of being based on a source material which is popular enough to attract a crowd, and fan-favourites like Ben Kingsley and Harrison Ford. They are both heavily featured in commercials, even more so that they might have a heavier presence than even the young boy who is supposed to be the main actor of the film, of course. Reviews will definitely help either in the long term process- the film has a decent 69% score on rotten tomatoes from 26 critics. Watch out for this film, as it buzzes into first this weekend. Before the final verdict, here are the film comparisons:

Ender’s Game Facebook: 137,742 likes
Ender’s Game Twitter: 9,421 followers

Oblivion Facebook: 293,016 likes
Oblivion Twitter: 8,072 followers
Pacific Rim Facebook: 769,556 likes
Pacific Rim Twitter: 30,246 followers
Elysium Facebook: 440,107 likes
Elysium Twitter: 5,200 followers
After Earth Facebook: 1,557,079 likes
After Earth Twitter: 18,830 followers

With that, I am currently predicting around $34.5 million, though that number might change closer to the date.

kinopoisk.ru
FREE BIRDS
FACEBOOK: 166,268 LIKES
TWITTER: 2,448 FOLLOWERS
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 22% FROM 45 REVIEWS
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 92% FROM 11,209 VOTES (AS OF POST TIME)
ROTTEN TOMATOES LIKE INDEX: 74% AVERAGE RATING: 4/5 FROM 12,085 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $19.6 MILLION (FIRST BET)

Relativity, let’s face it, is not a major studio and their move to release an animated movie as a kickstarter for the holiday season seems risky. However, risks should be taken when they are worth it, and Free Birds seems to be the prime example of just that. Once again, it benefits from an empty marketplace- apart from Cloudy 2, this film has totally no competition for now. Free Birds, however, seems to be rather low profile, and despite it’s marketing doing quite a good job, and the premise being rather interesting, it… just doesn’t seem right to me. However, I am not gonna pass any judgements into this, as children are longing for more animated movies, but parents might keep them back with other more high profile animated releases over the next few weeks (Frozen). Free Birds should benefit and be on par with Turbo, but anywhere higher? Impossible, or highly unlikely. Here are my film comparisons:

Free Birds Facebook: 166,268 likes
Free Birds Twitter: 2,448 followers

Turbo Facebook: 1,404,819 likes
Turbo Twitter: 484 followers

Facebook likes have been sluggish, but twitter counts have been chugging along moderately. My current prediction is at a mild $19.6 million. This might change, as like every other film on this list.

last vegas
LAST VEGAS
FACEBOOK: 56,732 LIKES
TWITTER: NIL
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 41% FROM 61 REVIEWS
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 94% FROM 6,964 VOTES
ROTTEN TOMATOES LIKE INDEX: 70% AVERAGE RATING: 3.7/5 FROM 8,315 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $14.8 MILLION (FIRST BET)

How I heard of this film? The older and more nostalgic and more family-friendly version of Hangover. With that, you sense a problem- how many times have a film tried to mimic another and successfully pulled off its premise? Little. Last Vegas has a star-studded cast, indeed, consisting of the likes of Michael Douglas, Robert DeNiro, Morgan Freeman and Kevin Kline. However, star power can only bring the film that far, with The Counselor being the main example for this claim. The trailers have not seemed to be funny at the very least, instead only showing old people fooling off in Vegas. The concept isn’t interesting, and marketing hasn’t really kicked up a lot of buzz, which is quite bad. Critics are harsh either- with only 7 reviews in yet, the film seats at a pathetic 43% score, which is disappointing at the least. To add on, facebook likes have been tepid, and only help to worsen the look of the situation. My current prediction for this film seats at $14.8 million.

Here are my final top 10 estimates. Feel free to debate about them or state your choices in the comments below:
1) Ender’s Game- $34.5 million
2) Free Birds- $19.6 million

3) Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- $16.2 million
4) Last Vegas- $14.8 million
5) Gravity- $14.4 million
6) Captain Phillips- $8.4 million
7) The Counselor- $4.1 million
8) Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2- $4.0 million
9) Carrie- $2.8 million
10) Escape Plan- $2.3 million

TOP 10 ESTIMATES: $121.1 MILLION
Check back soon for last weekend’s box office report, the November forecast, and the continuation of the pokemon walkthrough (sorry for the lack of posts lately, blame me on spending too much time on the game)

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