Box Office Forecast: Jackass to have a battle with Gravity for first this weekend, The Counselor to be decent

Jackass has always been a franchise that has had a healthy growth installment after installment. Unfortunately, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa seems likely to be the film that stops that record from continuing. Apart from that, this weekend will only see The Counselor release, as both films will most likely have a neck to neck fight with Gravity this weekend. This weekend, probably, would be the one that finally goes above last year’s top 10 gross, after what seems like a sudden dip in box office revenue over last year for the past few weekends.

Let’s begin with Gravity. Gravity has been a film treated so enthusiastically, that moviegoers have heeded other’s advices and started rushing out in the best formats available, in this case either being IMAX, or 3D. Gravity has had holds of under 30% over the past two weeks, and it looks likely to continue that streak this weekend. Expect a gross north of $22 million this weekend for the film.

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
JACKASS PRESENTS: BAD GRANDPA
FACEBOOK: NIL
TWITTER: NIL
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: NIL
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 96% FROM 13,833 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $25.1 MILLION (FIRST BET)
Let’s begin with this weekend’s first new opener, and the one with the most potential- Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa. The series has definitely been a successful one, earning more than $100 million domestically for the last installment. The series has always been remembered for it’s ‘joking’ theme, where trailers don’t have any plot- basically, a film version of stupid jokes which are humorous. Unfortunately, this film has many things going against it’s favor- it is the first film which does not have several of the characters in the past few films, and this is basically a spin-off. Social media buzz has also been tepid at best, which is not a good sign for this film this weekend. This film will most likely also diverge from previous installments, with this film following a proper, albeit loose plot this time round. All this factors alone might disgust moviegoers who have always liked the way the previous films presented themselves. This film, also, will dumb the third installment’s 3D platform, which will result in… a even bigger loss of profits. Overall, expect this film to perform in line with the second film, but a bit lower… maybe around the mid 20s.

the counselor movie poster
THE COUNSELOR
FACEBOOK: 170,806 LIKES
TWITTER: 1,548 FOLLOWERS
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: NIL
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 97% FROM 16,715 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $15.4 MILLION (FIRST BET)
Another film opening this weekend seems to be much worse off. The film is… The Counselor. Yes, it boasts a star-studded cast and a director with the name of Ridley Scott, which is probably right now remembered for last year’s Promethus, but it seems that he will not be able to recreate the magic with this one. This absolutely looks like a contender for awards early on when the first trailers were released, and even now, but reviews don’t seem to show. I am not giving any assumptions, except that I am just saying that studios usually hold back their films if they realise that it will harm their film’s potential when it opens. These films usually have bad to moderate reviews. I really hope that this is not the case, as it will be a disastrous lost for the whole crew, especially since the film has so much potential. Another problem would be it’s marketing. Marketing, instead of focusing on the storyline, have instead decided to dedicate maybe half of it showing famous faces, and trying to introduce their names proper. Star power doesn’t work as much as before anymore, as seen from last week’s Escape Plan, as moviegoers are now more conservative over their choice of movies which will be watched in theaters. With trailers now telling anything much, and no reviews to entice people to this, I believe that many people will just give this a go, like how they did not give The Fifth Estate a chance after seeing bad reviews, despite having Benedict Cumberbatch’s name attached. Here are some similar comparisons:

The Counselor facebook: 170,806 likes
The Counselor twitter: 1,548 followers

The Fifth Estate Facebook: 68,286 likes
The Fifth Estate twitter: 6,262 followers
Captain Phillips facebook: 40,482 likes
Captain Phillips twitter: 2,032 followers
Gravity facebook: 256,705 likes
Gravity twitter: 664 followers

As seen from above, the comparisons are made with other potential contenders releasing this year which are heading for the awards ceremony, with the exception of The Fifth Estate. Based on how the numbers churn out, The Counselor is doing moderately on facebook, just behind Gravity, but those numbers might not tell much, with Captain Phillips opening much bigger than the numbers suggest. Twitter numbers don’t seem good, though, but as the days come closer to the film’s release, I will take another look at that number. Overall, I am predicting a disappointing $15.4 million opening weekend.

Here are my current top 10 estimates:
1)Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- $25.1 million
2)Gravity- $23.1 million
3)The Counselor- $15.4 million
4)Captain Phillips- $12.6 million
5)Carrie- $8.2 million
6)Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2- $7.7 million
7)Escape Plan- $4.6 million
8)Enough Said- $1.4 million
9)Prisoners- $1.1 million
10)The Fifth Estate- $0.88 millionTOP 10 ESTIMATES: $99.88 million
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