Box Office Forecast: Carrie, Fifth Estate, Escape Plan won’t take down Gravity

Sorry for the lack of updates, as we are still trying to do up a walkthrough for a game which you will know soon. Here’s the box office forecast for the week! Therefore, this is a slightly trimmed down version from the one that was posted over the past few weeks.

Last weekend saw behemoth Gravity dropped by less than 25%, a record for a none-holiday weekend second weekend drop for a film that opened that big, allowing it to stay at $43.2 million. This weekend should once again be a similar story, as the film should once again have a historical drop which is definitely aiming for the record books. Meanwhile, all the attention was consumed by the film but Captain Phillips still managed to shine, with $25.7 million, above modest expectations. Machete Kills was a totally different story, having one of the worst openings ever for a film which opened to more than 2500 theaters, bad enough that I am sure the studio is regretting moving forward with a sequel.

This weekend is yet another different story, with three really different films trying to topple Gravity, but I doubt any of them really has the capability- Carrie, a horror remake from a famed writer, Fifth Estate, a film which is a awards contender gone wrong, and Escape Plan, a film which doesn’t really look like it can shine. This weekend last year, Paranormal Activity 4 robbed the scene for a $29 million opening, while Argo holds at $16.4 million. With more powerful holdovers last year dominating the bottom half of the charts, unless all the below mentioned films overperform, there should be no hope for this weekend to overtake last year’s once again.

Let’s begin with the film with the biggest potential, Carrie. Carrie seems to have the high hopes that it will turn out to be a blockbuster. In previous years, October has seen at least a Paranormal Activity or another famed horror franchise take the spotlight, but this year is really different, with no new horror movies about to enter the marketplace, and also none that entered it over the past 1 month, since Insidious 2. Insidious 2 is small now, and shouldn’t have much of an affect on this film, and moviegoers might be thirsty for one. I wouldn’t really call this a horror movie- it just isn’t fit to be titled so when the show doesn’t focus on the scares. However, it is based on a Stephen King book-don’t doubt that writer’s potential for creating a blockbuster- and this book might have been so popular once that it had spawned two other films. However, those films didn’t really make much of an impact. Besides, moviegoers usually ignore the remakes of films if they deem it not up to standard with the previous films which they do comparison with- take Dredd and Conan the Barbarian for example, as those films flopped due to this very reason. This film, though, has the advantage which other films in the genre do not- it has star power supported by two hot stars in today’s age- Julianne Moore, who is having moderate success, and Chloe Grace Moretz, who has had a lot of attention lately, most noticeably from the latest Kick-Ass 2. To end off, $30 million is certainly possible, but it really seems front-loaded, considering the history of the genre. I am currently staying at $27.6 million, though that might change closer to the film’s release date.

Escape Plan is yet another addition to this weekend’s roster, and it certainly doesn’t seem like it is anywhere big. Yes, Sylvester Stallone sure looks good if he can break out of all sorts of prisons, and it certainly seems cool to have Arnold either, which allows them to return to the action genre which characterized them, but look no further than earlier this year- despite having their names (individually, not together), Bullet to the Head and The Last Stand couldn’t bring in much attention. That might not be due to their fame fading over the years, but more towards the reason that moviegoers just don’t want to waste their movies these days on films which doesn’t seem enticing enough and can be bought or rented further down the light instead. Escape Plan certainly seems to be closer to that than a big genre film, and marketing has been soft. Star power is hard to predict these days, but as with the fanbases of both stars turning out in force to those films mentioned earlier, this film should at least also have a healthy boost from that. Don’t forget though, that this film is releasing in a far more crowded marketplace than the previous films mentioned (Bullet to the Head and The Last Stand), with behemoths Gravity and Captain Phillips, along with Carrie potentially, fighting over adult audiences. That might cause this film to be unnoticed, and come out of this weekend as the slaughtered victim. I am not going anywhere higher than $10 million, considering buzz doesn’t seem to be heading anywhere near The Last Stand, but I am instead aiming for something in line with The Last Stand’s gross. I am keeping with $7.6 million for now.

The Fifth Estate might well be the film with the least potential releasing wide over the weekend. I can’t deny that there was once awards buzz for this, and this film might have been helped by that. However, it seems that early reviews have proved the direct opposite, and it looks like this film has almost no awards chance anymore. That is really a shame, and the studio is nodding their heads to this either, as they are not going to take the risk of releasing this film in more than 1700 theatres (to cut down the potential backlash maybe?). The one and only exception to this film is Benedict Cumberbatch- he has been receiving a great amount of attention lately for his potential casting in big franchises, and his role in Star Trek Into Darkness which brought him to the world. He isn’t a reliable draw yet- he has not been tested individually- and this film looks likely to be the film that does so. I wouldn’t really go big on this one, and I will settle at a disappointing $6.1 million, something which this film could have countered if it ended up becoming a product which was better.Also worth some attention is 12 Years a Slave, one of the strongest awards contender this year, opening in limited in 18 cinemas. I am expecting a high per-theater average this weekend, before expanding to slightly less hyped about numbers. Apart from that, this weekend isn’t going to be much of a difference. Here’s the top 10 estimates:
1)Gravity-$32.5 million
2)Carrie-$27.6 million
3)Captain Phillips-$18.5 million
4)Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2-$8.7 million
5)Escape Plan-$7.6 million
6)The Fifth Estate-$6.1 million
7)Prisoners-$2.4 million
8)Runner Runner-$1.9 million
9)Insidious Chapter 2-$1.7 million
10)Machete Kills-$1.6 million
TOTAL TOP 10- $108.6 MILLION

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