Box Office Forecast: Captain Phillips and Machete Kills faces off with Gravity

Once again, remember to participate in the site’s poll and like the facebook page on the right sidebar! I am officially back after my brief hiatus, so expect posts regularly. If this is your second time reading this post, please note that the top 10 estimates, and the other features which were not available the first time you check, have been updated and you can check them out below.

The upcoming weekend will see two films clashing in theaters, or perhaps three, if Gravity were to open as big as I thought. Machete Kills and yet another Oscar contender, Captain Phillips, will be releasing in domestic theatres, and the latter seems like it has the most potential, but attaining a first place debut seems difficult, with a obstacle to overcome in the name of Gravity, which most likely will stay around the $25 million range. Meanwhile, Machete Kills will take a backseat among the drama face-off. This weekend last year, Taken 2 kept the top spot with slightly over $20 million, while Sinister, Argo and Hotel Translyvania had a close face-off. This weekend will not be able to come anywhere close, and will be off by a large margin unless Captain Phillips and Machete Kills helps to close up the gap, and the holdovers at the bottom have a better hold.

captain phillips
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
FACEBOOK: 22,874 LIKES
TWITTER: 822 FOLLOWERS
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 87% from 23 REVIEWS
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 19% from 19590 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $22.6 MILLION (SECOND BET)

Captain Phillips seems like it has a lot of potential. It is one of the potential bigger awards contender releasing into the mix early on in October, ahead of the rest of the bigger films. However, it faces off against the second weekend of Gravity, which will definitely have a great hold and stay within the $20 million range unless it opens to less than $30 million. This film has a lot of potential going in it’s favour. Firstly, it stars Tom Hanks, who is a recognized enough star to bring in some global attention. This film, meanwhile, expresses the tension like what was experienced in past Oscar winners like Argo, and as proven before, dramas based on true stories usually generate a sizeable enough amount of money. Award films usually open small and have great legs- however, this one doesn’t seem like it’s going to have much holding potential, due to the upcoming onslaught of adult dramas entering the cineplex, which have resulted in the dramatic drop of Prisoners despite generous reviews and word of mouth. Gravity is still going to remain big either. The director has had experience in the thriller genre prior to this film, with a few Bourne films under his name. However, social media has been alarmingly quiet for this film, as the numbers pale in comparison to several films we can think of through the same period of their pre-release cycle. Hopefully, this doesn’t tamper with the film grosses, though. This film will probably hit $20 million, but anywhere significantly above it is really unlikely at this moment. I am currently predicting a generous $22.6 million.

Machete Kills
MACHETE KILLS
FACEBOOK: 294,572 LIKES
TWITTER: 23,043 FOLLOWERS
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 27% from 12 REVIEWS
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 91% from 18,229 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $8.6 MILLION (SECOND BET)

The other film entering cineplexes seems to be disadvantaged here, with the combined power of Gravity and Captain Phillips. Machete Kills seems to be the counter-programming choice this weekend, but that doesn’t seem like its going to help, with so many adult dramas still lingering around the top 10 charts in theatres. Morever, this is based off a sequel to a drama which was critically well received, but not that well-liked by audiences. It must be worth taking note, though, that this film stars a star-studded cast which is much bigger than the original film, and big names are dropped in regularly in all its marketing. The reviews have not been as kind to this as it did to the previous film, and it is floating around the 25-30% score. The marketing is decent at best, but to see whether it flops, lets compare it with last weekend’s loser, Runner Runner:
Runner Runner facebook: 110,433 likes
Runner Runner twitter: 3,077 followers
Runner Runner rotten tomatoes anticipation level: 96% FROM 18,171 VOTES
Machete Kills Facebook: 294,572 LIKES
Machete Kills Twitter: 23,043 FOLLOWERS
Machete Kills rotten tomatoes anticipation level: 91% from 18,229 VOTES

As you can see, Machete Kills is at a much better state than Runner Runner as of now, but once again, it has the added benefit of a sequel backing it. This film doesn’t seem like it’s going to do much business before it burns out, so I am predicting a slight drop from the first film’s opening weekend, due to the rough competition from other adult dramas. The current prediction stays at $8.6 million.

Here are the top 10 estimates for the weekend:
1)Gravity- $31 MILLION
2)Captain Phillips- $22.6 MILLION (NEW!)
3)Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2- $14.6 MILLION
4)Machete Kills- $8.6 MILLION (NEW!)
5)Runner Runner- $3.4 MILLION
6)Prisoners- $3 MILLION
7)Insidious Chapter 2- $2.3 MILLION (DRAW)
7)Rush- $2.3 MILLION (DRAW)
9)Don Jon- $2.2 MILLION
10)Baggage Claim- $2.1 MILLION

TOP 10 ESTIMATES: $92.1 MILLION
LAST YEAR TOP 10 ESTIMATES: $119.26 MILLION

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