Box Office Forecast: Gravity to impress the world, Runner Runner will try to catch up

UPDATED: TOP 10 FILM ESTIMATES IS NOW UP! CHECK IT OUT! ALSO BELOW IS METALLICA’S COLUMN.
Posting this really really early so that I can focus on my papers for the rest of the week… see ya on Thursday!

Less than a week left before full time blogging resumes, and it will come back with a boatload of reviews, movie wiki entries and other news and more updates to boxofficefrontier.com! Meanwhile, there will be no posts till Thursday, once again. So, here we go!

It is unfortunately a shame that Gravity has officially taken advantage of its prowess to slow down movement, as that is precisely what it is doing to the box office this weekend. Gravity and Runner Runner are the only two openers which kick off the more lucrative than September month, and it seems like this weekend is going to be humungous. This weekend last year saw Taken 2 and Frankenweenie release, but the main attraction would be the former, as it obliterated almost all pre-release tracking to open much higher than the original with $49.5 million. However, unless both of the openers open big, this weekend might be down from last year, which nobody wants to see happen.

Gravity
GRAVITY
FACEBOOK: 136,576 likes
TWITTER: NIL
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 95% FROM 40 REVIEWS
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 98% FROM 40,125 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $39.8 MILLION (1ST GUESS)

There are many many reasons why Gravity is going to be a sleeper hit, or a humungous success. It’s positioning by Warner Bros basically puts this as one of their biggest Oscar contenders of the year, and it is already Oscar bait, due to the uncountable amount of times this film has screened in film festivals. Pre-release tracking and anticipation for this film has been high, and that is mostly due to the great reviews- currently, based on 40 reviews, the film is seating at a whopping 95% rating, which is higher than almost all the wide releases so far this year (biggest, maybe?). Even James Cameron, better remembered as the director of Avatar and Titanic, has already praised this film by calling it the best space movie he has seen ever. That bodes good news for the film. (Looks like it’s time to cut down by biasness and start taking a neutral and less long-winded stand) The cast consists of Academy Award Winners Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, and Alfonso Cuaron, who has previously won several awards in various categories. All these people alone would already be able to bring in a large mass of people into theatres, but what makes it bigger is the audience’s reaction the the trailers and marketing material- all of them have successfully pushed the tension to an even higher level, which shows that Warner Bros massive marketing strategy has been a success. They have even went as far as to allow this ground-breaking film to be released in 3D and IMAX theatres, which will make this one of the few films where the 3D ticket count is most likely higher than the normal ticket, mainly due to the cool visuals. However, it would be facing off against an onslaught both before and after this film’s release, which might tamper with holding power due to the large amount of potential oscar candidates crowding the theatre. Let’s look at similar comparisons to other Oscar candidates that have been released over the past year:
The Butler Facebook: 89,924 likes
Prisoners Facebook: 112,277 likes
Rush Facebook: 369,389 likes
Gravity Facebook: 136,576 likes

This is just tracking the facebook anticipation levels alone, and you can already see that Gravity is just behind Rush, and way ahead of the rest. At this pace, this film will definitely open bigger than $30 million, but if I aren’t being too overhyped, I think that anywhere to $50 million is currently possible. I am staying somewhere in the middle, with $39.8 million opening weekend.

Runner Runner
RUNNER RUNNER
FACEBOOK: 110,433 likes
TWITTER: 3,077 followers
ROTTEN TOMATOES SCORE: 21% FROM 24 REVIEWS
ROTTEN TOMATOES ANTICIPATION LEVEL: 96% FROM 18,171 VOTES
OPENING WEEKEND BET: $15 MILLION (FIRST GUESS)

The other film, and most likely the one being overshadowed, is none other than Runner Runner. Runner Runner, unfortunately, will have to serve as counter-programming to the more family-friendly PG-13 Gravity, and it’s themes have limited appeal. One advantage the film has in it’s favour is none other than the star-studded cast, consisting of Justin Timberlake, Gemma Arterton and Ben Affleck. The biggest of all those names would most likely be Ben Affleck, as he has been subjected to a lot of criticism over his casting as Batman, and he has also been involved in Argo, which won Best Picture. Since people really want to check out either Ben Affleck really is what he says he is and still not the Daredevil guy from the past, this film should have slightly boosted sales. However, the only problem would be it’s reviews- it’s rotten tomatoes score seats at 21% from 24 reviews, which isn’t much. With a packed market full of films of different genres, there is really too little space for this to shine. Therefore, we are keeping this at around $15 million for opening weekend, and if necessary, keep your eyes peeled, as this page might be updated if necessary.

Also this weekend, the Metallica movie is expanding nationwide after premiering exclusively at IMAX locations last weekend. It is expanding into around 2 times more theatres, at around 600, but unfortunately, almost all its IMAX theatres will be gone as Gravity should snatch at least most of them. This will make it sound like this film is a 1 week offer, and it seems like it definitely is. With a surprisingly large opening boasted by a Metallica fans, expect a gross which does not exceed last weekend’s.

As we come to the end of the post, there is one thing left before that- the top 10 estimates. Check it out below!

1)Gravity- $39.8 million
2)Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2- $25.6 million
3)Runner Runner- $15 million
4)Rush- $6.3 million
5)Prisoners- $5.9 million
6)Baggage Claim- $6.1 million
7)Don Jon- $4.4 million
8)Insidious Chapter 2- $3.3 million
9)The Family- $2 million
10)Instructions Not Included- $1.9 million

Once again, I will be gone till Thursday, but check back after that, as I will be hard at work on boxofficefrontier.com (I am no longer working on that site, instead shifting to another site title which is much more friendly with my plans), boatloads of reviews, movie entries for the wiki and more. If you have enjoyed this post, it would be great if you could jump by our facebook page and give this site a like- I will definitely appreciate it. Meanwhile, as October is befalling us, remember to take part in the poll towards the right, and vote for your most anticipated movie of October 2013. For now, see ya, and don’t forget to keep your eyes peeled to this page!

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