UPDATE: Top 10 estimates are out. Check it out all the way at the bottom.
This weekend is going to be an interesting and big one, as Rush expands nationwide, while three other films arrive at theatres- Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Baggage Claim and Don Jon. Before this lengthy forecast starts, this is just a reminder that apart from the box office report and next week’s box office forecast, there won’t be any other posts till next Thursday.
This weekend last year (oops, mentioned the wrong films for last weekend), four new films- End of Watch, House at the End of the Street, Trouble with the Curve and Dredd- opened in theatres though none of the films manage to open to over $13.2 million, which is pretty much standard in the month of September. This year is a really different story, and with four openers, and
an animated movie already expected to earn more than three of the above films combined- this year is a definite victory over last year.
Let’s start off with the film that has the best prospects- Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2. Just mentioning the title will already ring a bell in several people, as the film managed to have the biggest animated opening of the month, until the pesky Hotel Translyvania, from the exact same studio, decided to throw their film into the mix of 2012. However, this film is almost rest assured that it will reclaim the throne, albeit this time as the biggest opening of the month, eclipsing both the above film and this month’s Insidious Chapter 2 as the overall leading champion.
Why, you would ask. Well, it is worth noting that this film is based off a sequel, and the original film will barely released 4 years ago, which means that the film is still quite fresh in moviegoer’s minds. Also, there has been no animated film after Planes, which makes audience lingering for more. However, September has historically been known as the quietest month of the year for ages now, and the back to school period is usually not safe for films eyeing a family demographic to enter the theatres. However, as Hotel Translyvania and the original film proved, that doesn’t really matter anymore. Advertising has at least been satisfying, and families will be grabbing their child to the only kids friendly film still showing in theatres which they haven’t watched already. Therefore, this film is a definite hit. I currently expect north of $40 million, due to facebook and twitter activity being quieter than Hotel Translyvania by a tonne, though that number can even potentially hit $50 million. Whatever it is, expect this to be the king of the month.
Here are some numbers to look at, for a brief look at this film VS Hotel Translyvania’s prospects on twitter and facebook. Once again, this number is skewed, as Hotel Translyvania has already been in theatres for over a year:
Cloudy 2 facebook: 1,120,257 likes
Cloudy 2 twitter: 3,903 followers
Hotel Translyvania facebook: 3,075,814 likes
Hotel Translyvania twitter: 15,074 followers
Baggage Claim is the first show in weeks which is screening to African-American audience, by boasting an African-American cast (obviously). However, there is little to no recognizable face in there. However, it is worth noting that this audience managed to push Think Like A Man to a good opening weekend last year. However, the studio doesn’t seem to have much confidence in this- it is releasing in barely 1800 theatres. Tracking for this one has also been tepid, and marketing has been largely ineffective, due to it not even making me giggle once during the entire duration of the trailer. Therefore, look out for this one, as I expect it to earn around $5.1 million on opening weekend.
Don Jon is a controversial movie, and might turn off it’s potential romance seekers due to it’s heavy porn focus in the trailer. However, for those not already turned off, this film should be a good example of a counter programming- the film is currently having a 83% rating on rotten tomatoes in just 12 reviews. That is a good number, considering it is Joseph Gordon Levitt’s directorial debut. Besides, this film has a star-studded cast also boasting Avengers star Scarlett Johansson, which will definitely bring in their respective fanbases. However, due to the crowded nature of this weekend, this film might be adversely affected. I am currently predicting an opening weekend north of $11.5 million, and it should gradually have great word of mouth.
Rush has already been released in theatres for a week already, but the release wasn’t significant, only being thrown into 5 theatres. However, the results were impressive- it attracted a high per-theatre average of over $40,000, which is quite impressive, based on current estimates. However, the topic on formula 1 has not been quite popular in the US, which might tamper the number slightly, but having the combined force of none other than Avengers star Chris Hemsworth and Ron Howard definitely will help. Besides, marketing has been in it’s prime, and reviews have been really kind, pushing it forward as a potential awards contender- it has a remarkable 90% from 77 reviews. However, another awards player, Prisoners, has barely only been released for a week, and with a great hold expected, this film might be affected adversely. Before having a say in my estimates, let’s first analyse this film’s social media status, in comparison with last week’s Prisoners and Lee Daniel’s The Butler:
Rush Facebook: 349,960 likes
Rush Twitter: 8,060 followers
Lee Daniel’s The Butler Facebook: 89,143 likes
Prisoners Facebook: 98,312 likes
As seen from above, it is quite obvious that Rush is being highly anticipated at the same period. Therefore, I am currently expecting around $16.5 million on opening weekend for this film.
NOTE: PRISONERS FACEBOOK IS TAKEN 4 DAYS FROM RELEASE, AROUND THE SAME PERIOD AS RUSH IS NOW.
With all this in, I currently expect this film to earn $16 million on opening weekend.
Here are the current top 10 estimates:
1)Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2- $43 million
2)Rush- $16 million
4)Don Jon-$11.5 million
5)Insidious Chapter 2-$7.1 million
6)Baggage Claim-$5.1 million
7)Instructions Not Included-$5 million
8)The Family-$3.8 million
9)We’re the Millers-$3.7 million
10)Lee Daniel’s The Butler-$3.2 million
That’s all for now! Remember to like my facebook page and follow this site if you have enjoyed the contents here! Also, remember to check back on October 4th for a full wave of movie reviews, site updates, boxofficefrontier.com updates and our movie wiki. See ya!