Box Office Forecast: Insidious Chapter 2 and Prisoners clash for first

Just a short reminder that sometime this week, there will be no posts on this site all the way till 3rd October 2013, except for box office forecasts. All other posts will resume on that day, and we will also be dedicating more time on boxofficefrontier.com and a movie wiki. Remember to like our facebook page if you have enjoyed this article!

This weekend, two new wide releases are slated to arrive, and that list include Prisoners and Battle of the Year. Only Prisoners has a chance of overtaking Insidious 2, though, but it really all depends on the latter’s holding power. Last year, the theatrical complex saw four new films- End of Watch, House at the End of the Street, Trouble with the Curve and Dredd, though none of the films manage to open to over $13.2 million, which is pretty much standard in the month of September. However, this year is a very different story, as we have much better holdovers, which makes us think that this year will either fall about even, or go above once again.

Prisoners

Prisoners is, to put it in a few words, a awards contender with a star-studded cast. It definitely boasts a really star-studded cast, which includes Hugh Jackman (The Wolverine, Les Miserables), Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch), along with Viola Davis, Maria Bello, Terrence Howard, Melissa Leo and Paul Dano. If you have looked at the poster really clearly (you can see it above either), you will realise that all of them have been either Golden Globe or Academy Award nominees (winner for Melissa Leo), apart from Paul Dano, which makes it obvious this film is heading for awards run. It has also been showing to critics in film festivals way before it released in theatres, and currently spots an 85% rating on rotten tomatoes. However, are moviegoers truly interested in a drama? This film will undoubtedly have great holding power, but exactly how big will it open? The biggest opening, according to Box Office Mojo, would be Taken and Ransom, with the latter being released more than a decade ago, where such films are received better than now. Even Taken had a more action-oriented landscape with a better known producer. And no other films which are similar have had a gross exceeding $80 million. Younger moviegoers will definitely not be interested in dramas, and it’s R rating will also take another step in preventing them to come to the cineplexes, which brings the main audience to the older people, which have always driven such films. Other than The Family, which is really the only film that can prove a threat, adult moviegoers have really been secluded from any other film in the entire first half of the month. Also, it has a head start of being the second film to be released which is an awards contender, about a month and a half after Lee Daniel’s The Butler. An opening in this point of over $20 million is really likely at the moment, but don’t forget that The Butler had a wider range of people to appeal, whereas this film is more restricted. Firstly, let’s analyse the facebook and twitter numbers for this film VS Lee Daniel’s The Butler:

Lee Daniel’s The Butler Facebook:88,105 likes
Prisoners Facebook:98,312 likes

It’s quite obvious that Prisoners is having a head start in anticipation level, as it has much more facebook fans than even Lee Daniel’s The Butler at one and a half months of release. With all these factors put together, expect Prisoners to barely pass $20 million, but not by much.

ROTTEN TOMATOES: 85%
LEVEL OF ANTICIPATION: 60%
PRISONERS OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTION: $23 MILLION

Battle of the Year

The other film really isn’t worth much to talk about. It is basically Battle of the Year, yet another film eyeing the exact audience that made up films like Step Up. As you can see, the dancing genre has been having a bad time lately, with anticipation level for last year’s Step Up: Revolution being at tepid levels. The previous named film had a much bigger fanbase to tap on, and we cannot imagine this film going anywhere close at all. At least not even getting half of that sum, if you consider it being released in quite a small amount of theatres (est. 1800). With that all put together, this film should hit around $5.6 million, at least to me.

ROTTEN TOMATOES: NIL
LEVEL OF ANTICIPATION: 10%
BATTLE OF THE YEAR OPENING WEEKEND PREDICTION: $5.6 MILLION

Two other noticeable films will hit theatres this weekend, and that includes the Wizard of Oz 3D re-release in over 300 theatres, and Rush in limited release in 5 theatres. I expect Wizard of Oz to hit around $2.6 million this weekend, due to it’s added IMAX boost, while Rush to hit $80,000. Rush will be covered in greater detail next week, as it expands into more theatres.

Last weekend saw Insidious Chapter 2 break records for biggest opening for a live action film as it barely reached Hotel Translyvania’s opening weekend gross, with $41.05 million. The Family wasn’t bad either, with $14.5 million. Two films hit the $100 million milestone, and they are… Lee Daniel’s The Butler and This is the End. You can check it out later today in the box office report. Here is our top 10 predictions for the weekend:

1)Prisoners-$23 million (NEW!!!)
2)Insidious Chapter 2- $14.9 million
3)The Family- $7.6 million
4)Battle of the Year-$5.6 million (NEW!!!)
5)Lee Daniel’s The Butler-$4.4 million (DRAW)
5)We’re the Millers-$4.4 million (DRAW)
7)Riddick-$3.4 million
8)Instructions Not Included-$2.5 million
9)Planes-$2.4 million
10)One Direction: This is Us-$1.2 million

For now, this is yet another reminder to like our facebook page, to keep up with the latest details! (We won’t be updating it till 3rd October either). Meanwhile, check back later today for the box office report and the long shot box office forecast, and sometimes this week for the October preview (that has to come early either, due to time constraints for the remainder of the month).

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