Box Office Forecast: Insidious 2 to scare up huge number this weekend

Perhaps one of the bigger weekends of the month, this weekend will see two different films releasing- highly anticipated movie Insidious 2 and The Family, a dark comedy with a star studded cast.

The Family Poster
THE FAMILY
ANTICIPATION FACTOR: 25%
ROTTEN TOMATOES: NIL

The quieter option this weekend would be The Family. The genre it lies under, Dark comedy, has not really been successful, with the highest grossing yet Horrible Bosses, which did not even hit $120 million. This film is much darker, and comedy fans will most lilely be turned off by the violent nature of the film. Opening in the quiet month of summer might also affect the film’s performance. The one bright advantage this film has over the Insidious sequel, though, is it’s star studded cast. Tommy Lee Jones, Michelle Pfeiffer and Robert De Niro’s names alone might already bring in some fanfare, but don’t forget that the names before do not have the same amount of fame in today’s context- the film might have been more successful had it been released back in the 20th century. Luc Besson’s name might also bring in a small chunk of people. This film is expected to have great holding power, due to it’s target demographics (older people are usually more conservative in their movie choices, and usually look at the reviews). I expect the film to hit around $13 million for the weekend.

Insidious Chapter 2 poster
INSIDIOUS CHAPTER 2
ANTICIPATION FACTOR: 85%
ROTTEN TOMATOES: NIL

The film that is expected to bring in a larger crowd, and more fanfare, and rob the attention from all other films would be Insidious 2. The sequel to the generally well-received original, director James Wan has been having a greater time at the box office, and his quality of movies in the horror genre has improved dramatically (look at The Conjuring). The director is also coming off The Conjuring, which released around two months prior. Besides, there has been no big horror movies since We’re Next, which did not bring in even $10 million at the box office, which means that the last sign of any competition from within the genre has been exhausted. Insidious had great holding power, ending off with over $54 million, which is considerably very little, but considering the film earned much more fans on DVD, this film is likely to earn much more than that. James Wan has also been attached to direct Fast and Furious 7, and with his name receiving a lot of mainstream attention now, this film could not really release at a better time. Trailers have also been good and scary, and with lots of marketing, they have also stated ‘from the director of The Conjuring’. Here are some historical comparisons with other films of it’s genre:

Insidious 2 Facebook:2,838,616 likes
Insidious 2 twitter:10,555 followers

The Conjuring facebook:683,910 likes
The Conjuring twitter:37,601 followers
The Purge facebook:692,865 likes

The comparison above is definitely skewed, due to Insidious 2 already having a sequel to depend on, and the other films having already been released for a longer period of time, but as from above, we can see that Insidious 2 is already quite popular on facebook. With the above numbers, I am currently predicting a $39 million opening weekend, which would make it one of the biggest openings in the month of September though that number might be skewed by my liking for the genre, and the film itself.

Last weekend managed to surpass the previous year by 29% in year to year comparison, and this weekend’s films will most likely also be able to overtake last year’s offerings, unless Insidious 2 and The Family underperforms much more than expected, which is unlikely (at least it will fall even). Here are the top 10 predictions for the weekend:
1)Insidious Chapter 2- $39 million
2)The Family- $13 million

3)Lee Daniel’s The Butler- $6.7 million
4)Instructions Not Included- $5.9 million (DRAW)
4)We’re the Millers- $5.9 million (DRAW)
6)Planes-$2.8 million
7)Blue Jasmine-$2.1 million
8)One Direction: This is Us-$1.9 million
9)Elysium-$1.8 million
10)Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters-$1.6 million

(SORRY FOR LAST WEEK AND THE WEEK BEFORE’S VERY DIFFERENT PREDICTIONS)Check back soon for the long delayed summer recap, and 2015’s analysis.

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