September 2013 Box Office Preview

If you have been enjoying the contents on this site, remember to like the facebook page to show me your support! Meanwhile, to check out the fall preview, click here. As summer finally comes to a halt, it looks like we have arrived at one of the quietest months of the year, or the transition months between summer and the holiday season, and here comes yet another monthly preview.

Let’s start off with the first weekend of the month. Riddick goes into wide release as the sole film occupying the date. There are many odds against Riddick, as it comes directly after a very packed summer full of big blockbusters. However, it is worth noting that there are few films that prove to be a challenge to Riddick- the last film to prove a problem, Elysium, hardly maked much noise, as it underperformed right out of the gate. The previous film is not that well-received, which had a big dip over the first film. With Vin Diesel becoming more of a household name now, thanks to his involvement in the wildly-popular Fast and Furious franchise, and with the addition of IMAX and 3D, it looks like this film will add upon the first film’s gross, and not the second. With that, I currently am expecting an opening in the high 20s, to the low 30s, but all that can change quickly. Whatever it is, this weekend will beat last year, with only The Words and Cold Light of Day releasing (both flopped terribly)

The second weekend will be more packed at the Cineplex, with 2 very different films coming face to face- one of them being none other than Insidious 2, the anticipated sequel to the first film, whereas the second film is a dark comedy starring a star-studded cast. The first film mentioned might even look to add upon the first Insidious’ gross, due to the popularity and freshness of James Wan’s name among audiences and critics now (The Conjuring). The first trailer has indeed been successful, and the studio is really hoping that this film can open even bigger than his previous project, The Conjuring. This film also hopes to bring in a larger audience with it’s kids-friendly PG-13 rating, which will definitely bring more teenagers into theatres, considering that there is no film rated PG-13 or below this whole month, beside Battle of the Year, which will not make much of an impact, and Cloudy’s sequel being released two weeks later. With that, Insidious 2 will inevitably open bigger, due to the cast from the previous film returning and good word of mouth, but we expect it to have a bigger drop this time round.

The Family is a very different story. Despite starring a rather star-studded cast consisting of Robert De Niro, Michelle Pfeiffer and Tommy Lee Jones, it currently suffers from a general lack of marketing, but only time will tell how good this will perform. With its R rating limiting it’s potential, this film really has to depend on genre fans to rush to this film, as well as the fanbases of the respective cast members. The director is also popular enough to attract quite a small crowd (Luc Besson). All in all, this weekend will most likely overtake last year’s films, unless Insidious 2 performs much lower than we anticipate (I hope not).

The third weekend of the month has three films fighting neck-to-neck with each other. Battle of the Year is the only non R-rated offering releasing on that very weekend, but its genre is quite limiting and has lost it’s appeal over the years- dance movies like Step Up, despite being a favourite years ago, faltered with it’s previous outing. We also have a nudge that this film will not be released in more than 2000 theatres, which makes this film go even lower. This film will hit max $10 million.

The other two R-rated films releasing that weekend are Prisoners and Rush, both dramas being potential award contenders. Both are vying for early recognition, before the large mass of award hopefuls drop down over the next few months, including Gravity. Prisoners right now has the larger appeal, consisting of a star-studded cast of previous award winners or nominees, including fan-favourite Hugh Jackman, AKA Wolverine. Prisoners also has the appeal of being a drama with a better concept, in contrast with Rush, which is based on a F1 race. Seriously, racing movies, unless being thrilling (look at Fast and Furious), will have totally no hope of breaking out. All hope now depends on Chris Hemsworth’s fame and Ron Howard’s name for this film to seriously break out (if you have no idea what we are talking about, it is Rush). Rush is only expanding into NYC and LA this weekend though, as a building up for future expansion, so it will not make such of a big impact. This year’s outings might go below last year’s outing, or fall even.

The last weekend of the month will contain one anticipated animated sequel, while another a controversial film, and finally one comedy. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 has the advantage of being a sequel of a $124 million. The trailers have been showing and are effective in conveying the message that the film is back for yet another fun ride. Meanwhile, Cloudy, despite being released in one of the quietest months of the year, is no doubt being released in a period of a lack of animated movies- the last animated film was Planes, which was released about a month earlier. With word-of mouth and ticket price inflation, expect this to be a bigger hit.

The other one, Don Jon, sees Joseph-Gordon Levitt jump right on the director’s wagon, while also being the star. This film really is all about Levitt being obsessed with porn, and then falling in love with a girl, and then has to choose between the two. However, will audiences want to catch a film of such a genre? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, both the cast indeed have a fanbase to rely upon, and all eyes on this film, which could end up becoming a total failure. No matter how big Cloudy 2 opens, this weekend should be in on a dip over last year.

The final film, Baggage Claim, is being released by Fox Searchlight. The trailers have really been ineffective in creating laughs (at least to me), and not reflecting other’s opinions, it does not really bode well for the film. As such, maybe an opening below $10 million is the highest it can get.

Overall, the month should be up over last year once again. Here comes the end of this lengthy post, and here comes the estimates. Once again, numbers on the left are opening weekend numbers, while numbers on it’s right are the predicted end gross:

SEPTEMBER 2013 RELEASES:
Riddick-$29 million- $65 million end gross
Insidious 2-$38 million- $90 million end gross
The Family-$13 million- $36 million end gross
Battle of the Year-$7 million- $15 million end gross
Rush (WIDE)-$9 million- $39 million end gross
Prisoners-$18 million- $65 million end gross
CLoudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2-$45 million- $151 million end gross
Don Jon-$7 million- $18 million end gross
Baggage Claim-$6 million- $17 million end gross

See you next time, for this summer’s recap, an updated 2015 preview, as well as more box office forecasts and reports!

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