Box Office Forecast: One Direction set to make otherwise quiet weekend roar

Summer has finally came to a close, and it looks like the box office hurrah experienced from May to July will finally quieten down, to become one of the quietest weekends of the summer yet. Three new films will engage audience this weekend, but with not much potential in each of them, it looks like the One Direction film would be able to lead the rest easily. This weekend last year, as a whole, saw three new releases, in which The Possession was a mild success for Lionsgate, with $21 million, while Lawless earning just north of $12 million. News was more glum for Oogieloves, as it earned less than $611 thousand in wide release. Top 12 combined earned around $109.4 million, and this year’s films will most likely earn around the same amount.

1D movie
One Direction: This is Us is yet another movie from the concert genre, mainly tapping on the large fanbase of the popular UK boyband. This film was most likely greenlit due to yet another reason- the growth and success of concert movies. The craze all started back in 2008, when the Miley Cyrus/Hannah Montana film earned north of $65 million in just shy of 700 theatres, a crazy number for that time. That number further erupted in 2009, with the Michael Jackson film, and reached it’s ultimate peak in 2011, with the Justin Bieber movie earning north of $73 million in North America. However, the craze of seeing their favourite singers on the big screen has diminished- the latest Katy Perry film only managed to earn a still respectable $25.3 million last year. One Direction might undeniably be a more popular option right now, with their latest single breaking VEVO’s record for most views on it’s first day. However, that might not necessarily result in big money, especially when people today would rather hear their songs on youtube for free, or see them perform live in concerts. With the addition of 3D, which seems weird, considering last year’s Katy Perry movie also utilised the same format. How much this film can break out is further emphasized by the current fanbase of the person, in contrast with Katy Perry, Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus:

Miley Cyrus facebook fanbase:28,148,032 likes
Justin Bieber facebook fanbase:56,319,114 likes
Katy Perry facebook fanbase:56,279,105 likes
One Direction facebook fanbase:19,482,592 likes

Miley Cyrus twitter fanbase:13,304,468 followers
Justin Bieber twitter fanbase:43,659,051 followers
Katy Perry twitter fanbase:41,516,810 followers
One Direction twitter fanbase:14,547,601 followers

With the above numbers, you can see that even though One Direction isn’t the most popular artist yet, it still has a really dedicated fanbase.
The current rotten tomatoes score is just at the borderline pass with just 5 reviews, but such genres are usually review-proof, so this isn’t a cause for worry. With fans going to rush out quickly on the first day, we expect this film to fall off fast throughout the weekend, and perhaps earn half of it’s weekend’s gross on it’s first day. With that said, I am currently predicting a $18 million opening weekend.

As if that wasn’t enough. We have yet another two films coming our way in the final weekend, namely Closed Circuit and Getaway. Closed Circuit will only be releasing in an est. 800 theatres nationwide, a relatively quiet number, and will take advantage by releasing early on a Wednesday. Getaway will only receive a push to slightly over 2000 theatres, but will not have enough to break out that much.

closed circuit
Has anyone seen an advertisement for Closed Circuit? I doubt so, and most likely the studio is just trying to get rid of this film and dump it into the quietest weekend of the summer, which really raises a lot of questions for such a film to be released here. However, with this summer’s explosive blockbusters already giving everyone a feed of relief, audience may be looking forward to more adult fare this time round. As seen from the past few weeks, the box office has not been that impressive when considering adult fare- apart from Lee Daniel’s The Butler, everything else underperformed or flopped. The most notorious example yet this summer would be Paranoia, which was based on a source material and yet earned an awful $3.5 million on opening weekend. With Paranoia containing a star-studded cast which consists of fan favourites, this film’s stars are up to the test (Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall are nothing compared to Harrison Ford and Gary Oldman). With these in check, the rotten tomatoes score currently seats at rotten, with 4:1 in ratio. Let’s take a look at this film’s fanbase, VS Paranoia:

Paranoia facebook:72,743 likes
Paranoia twitter:3289 followers
Closed Circuit facebook:14,423 likes
Closed Circuit twitter:438 followers

I can’t see this film surpassing even Paranoia’s modest numbers, which means that I currently predict $3 million for the 5-day weekend, and $2.1 million for the 3-day weekend.

getaway
The final film at least looks slightly more enticing than the previous film covered on this list, but once again is more towards adult fare. Containing elements from popular shows like Taken and Fast and Furious, this film does not look original, at the very least, and even the concept sounds a little boring, and slow paced. Even though there are hardly any reviews in by now which judges the film, there has been hardly any marketing for this film as well. Even though it is getting a more modest release into slightly more than 2000 theatres, it is worth noting that star Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez are currently popular stars on the rise, and Ethan Hawke has previously starred in both Sinister and The Purge, which makes the audience’s impression on him better. Whatever it is, this show is still being thrown in a dumping ground for movies, and thus the risks of it performing a little lower is possible. Here is the current situation in terms of facebook and twitter for the film:

Getaway facebook:195,456 likes
Getaway twitter:23,412 followers

That is much more than Closed Circuit, and with it’s effective, though lacking trailers which showed off several suspense and cool car chasing scenes, we expect audiences to be enticed to this show over opening weekend, and have moderate holding power. I am currently keeping my estimate at a modest $9.5 million.

Here is my current estimate for the top 10:
1)One Direction: This is Us-$18 million
2)The Butler- $13.1 million
3)We’re the Millers-$10.2 million
4)Getaway-$9.5 million
5)Planes-$5.5 million
6)The World’s End-$5.1 million
7)The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones-$4.4 million
8)Elysium-$3.7 million
9)You’re Next-$3.0 million
10)Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters-$2.9 million
BONUS:Closed Circuit-$2.1 million

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