Box Office Forecast: Will Kick Ass 2 attract enough fans to beat Lee Daniel’s The Butler?

This post might be updated later this week.
This weekend, 4 news films will release in theatres, but the weekend as a hold will be quieter than last weekend, with possibly no films hitting the $20 million mark. The 4 films are, Jobs, Kick-Ass 2, Lee Daniel’s The Butler and Paranoia. However, with such a weak slate this weekend, unless one or two of them overperform drastically, has hardly any chance to beat last year’s slate, which included Expendables 2 ($28.6 million), and when combined with the rest of the films, earned $139.5 million as a whole.

Jobs is the one with the least hope. Yes, it might have Ashton Kutcher in the cast, and his name might bring in quite a fanfare, but it is out of his comedy wheelhouse. He stars as the founder of Apple in this film, and the film is obviously geared at Apple die-hard fans. However, the studio’s plans have not seemed to work out- apart from the obvious fact that Open Road Film’s highest grossing film to date is The Grey, which only went on to earn $51.58 million domestically, there has been a lack of marketing on it, and reviews have not been kind at all- it currently seats at a 43% rating from 7 reviews. Ashton Kutcher has also not been seen in theatres for quite some time already- his latest films, No Strings Attached and New Year’s Eve, had the benefit of at least one more star backing him up, and yet both did not even hit $80 million. With not much buzz coming out of the film, we do not expect this to have terrific word of mouth, which means it will die quickly, in the midst of the other adult films around in the Cineplex. I am currently expecting a rather disappointing $8.6 million for this film’s opening weekend.

Paranoia, despite having a great cast consisting of Gary Oldman, Harrison Ford and Liam Hemsworth, is coming at a wrong time, due to it being released on a really packed weekend (last weekend was even bigger). It might perform better than Jobs, but the trailers have also been rather lacking. The studio, Relativity, seems to have little confidence in it, but really, their highest grossing film to date is Immortals, which seats at $83.5 million right now. With much less buzz right now, and a potential rotten rating on rotten tomatoes (it currently has 2 reviews submitted, of which both are rotten), we expect this film to be no much better than Jobs, probably earning around the same. However, it has the added benefit of star-power, which means we will up the number slightly, and give it a $10.1 million weekend.

lee daniel's the butler
Now, on to the more exciting films of the weekend. Lee Daniel’s The Butler has been getting a lot of publicity lately, due to it’s title, which was previously been used by Warner Bros. The studio is really lucky to go forward with the name, with the director’s name attached to the front of it, but that is enough to shoo people off. However, everything else about the film is quite good, it currently is one of the contenders for the awards season, and it currently has a 86% rating on rotten tomatoes from 14 reviews. Also, the cast noticeably include Oprah Winfrey- just her name alone will bring in a large group of people, who are mainly her fan. Being the more appealing adult film of the weekend, and since 2 Guns have been out for quite some time already, this film definitely has enough space to shine, considering the next two weekends at the box office are really very quiet. Apart from Oprah Winfrey, this film also spots a star-studded cast, which gives it yet another benefit. It is not yet to be seen whether it has the potential to beat Kick-Ass 2 on opening weekend, but what we do know is that this film will have great holding power in the weeks to come, and will eventually overtake Kick-Ass 2. I am currently predicting a $20.5 million weekend.

kick ass 2
The final film releasing this weekend also happens to be one subjected to negative publicity lately, and ironically is from it’s own cast members. Being the only film which is a sequel opening this weekend, the film has really little competition to fight with, as Elysium is in it’s second weekend by now, and The Butler will get the older generations. However, Jim Carrey has been announcing to the world that he regrets his decision in joining the film, due to his sympathy for the victims of the shootings last year. That is not to say that he is the second guy to play that role, after Nicholas Cage left after playing him in the first film. Okay, back to the predictions stage. Despite the first film not earning much domestically at the box office, only finishing off with $48 million domestically, of which $19.8 million comes from opening weekend. This film doesn’t look like it is going to improve much from the previous film, but one advantage this film has at it’s side is the first film once again- it became a cult hit on DVD and home media, which means much more people are going to rush out this time round (unless they happen to all be the ones who watched it in theatres). Those familiar with the comics would definitely catch it, but I doubt that anyone other than that group of people would even be bothered to catch such a film, due to it’s lack of appeal, and the competitive marketplace. Lastly, the film is currently lacking in marketing material, which means that the studio might be too overconfident. All put together, the film will improve from the first film (unless it follows Red 2 and Expendables 2 and drops from it’s predecessors), but not by much, and thus will grab around $21.2 million this weekend. However, this all might change later this week.

Okay, that’s all for now, remember to check back again next week for more updates, and regularly for box office reports, and movie news! Meanwhile, like our facebook page if you have liked the website, to keep up with our latest updates, by clicking here. See you next time, and for now, look at our top 10 estimates for the weekend:
1)Kick-Ass 2-$21.2 million
2)Lee Daniel’s The Butler-$20.5 million
3)We’re the Millers-$15 million
4)Elysium-$14.8 million
5)Planes-$12.5 million
6)Paranoia-$10.1 million
7)Jobs-$8.6 million

8)Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters-$7.1 million
9)2 Guns-$5.4 million
10)Smurfs 2-$5.2 million


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s