Box Office Forecast: Elysium to lead packed August weekend

This post will be updated closer to the film’s release.
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This weekend, four films are set to be released in theatres- We’re the Millers, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, Planes and Elysium- in which the first two will be released early in Wednesday while the other two will be released in Friday.

The big winner of the three day weekend will most likely be Elysium. From the same director that brought you the Oscar winning District 9, this film will tackle the sci-fi genre once again. District 9 was really a phenomenon, opening well but having even better legs. It might be tough to expect a film like Elysium to match that number, even though it has the added benefit of having Matt Damon in it. Jodie Foster even joins in, and both their names are everywhere in the marketing. It currently has a 67% score on rotten tomatoes, which is rather disappointing. This film will also have the added disadvantage of having tense competition this month, with several movies underperforming week after week due to that. It also has to fend off three other films this weekend. However, with the added benefit of IMAX, this film should open moderately, but have average legs.
Here are some similar comparisons:
Elysium Facebook: 355,174 likes
Elysium twitter: 2663 followers

2 Guns facebook: 223,052 likes
White House Down facebook: 335,705 likes
White House Down twitter: 11,538 followers
Pacific Rim facebook: 603,926 likes
Pacific Rim twitter: 22,519 followers
With that, I am currently predicting $35.6 million opening weekend.

Planes is yet another animated film which continues this summer’s onslaught of animated films, and comes right on the heels of both Smurfs 2 and Turbo’s failure. Both of those films were affected by Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University’s performance earlier this summer, which shows that audiences are finally tired of the genre. This one has an advantage, though, of sharing a same universe as Cars, and having quite a similar premise overall. Turbo, though, also covers similar genres, and both films might be affected by each other’s performance. Disney seems to have a lot of confidence on this one, already slotting a date for it’s sequel for next year. Of course, this one does not have the Pixar brand name attached to it- most likely due to the okay performance of Cars. In what seems like a crowded marketplace, this film really doesn’t have a lot of place to shine, but there are no animated films releasing right after for the next few weeks, which might signify better holding power here. Nonetheless, marketing has been limited, and with that, I only expect it to earn around $21 million over the three days, lowest so far this summer. Here are similar comparisons:
Planes facebook: 465,729 likes
Turbo facebook: 1,190,653 likes
Epic facebook: 348,749 likes (as of June 7th 2013)

We're the Millers
We’re the Millers is a R rated comedy releasing early on the Wednesday, to take advantage of the crowded marketplace. This film stars Jennifer Anniston and Jason Sudeikis, both whose star powers have not been tested that much yet. This summer, once again, has been full of success stories for comedies, and as those films have long left theaters, this film is coming in at a prime time to take over the space those films left (The Heat, This is the End, Grown Ups 2). However, don’t forget that The World’s End is releasing soon after, which might tamper this film’s holding power. This film is currently depending on it’s opening weekend, and with a somewhat successful marketing, just has to bank on it’s reviews in order to push it further. I am currently expecting $26 million for the 5-day weekend, and $17 million for the three-day weekend. Here are some similar comparisons:
We’re the Millers facebook: 190,547 likes
We’re the Millers twitter: 320 followers

This is the End facebook: 699,226 likes
This is the End twitter: 15,747 followers
The World’s End facebook: 127,746 likes
The World’s End twitter: 10,441 followers

percy jackson sea of monsters
The final film releasing this weekend, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, is currently the more popular of the new openers opening this weekend. However, there are many odds against it’s favour- the target demographics it is targeting has once again been wooed several times this summer, ranging from animated films to sci-fi films. This film, meanwhile, comes 4 years after the not well received original film. 4 years might be a long wait, and the first film really wasn’t such a big success after all, only topping out at $88.7 million after a $31.2 million opening weekend. With a bigger budget, this film ought to earn more than that, but in a much more competitive market where several films are already underperforming, it looks like this film will follow the trend. Here are some similar comparisons:
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters facebook: 1,449,393 likes
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters twitter: 35,809 followers

Mortal Instruments: City of Bones facebook: 685,745 likes
Mortal Instruments: City of Bones twitter: 73,769 followers
I am currently expecting only $28.5 million for the 5-day weekend, and $18.6 million for the three-day weekend.

Okay, that’s all for the weekend! Last year, Bourne Legacy and The Campaign combined to bring down Dark Knight Rises, with $38.1 million and $26.6 million respectively. The films overall earned $142.3 million, and with better holdovers, and similar amounts of new openings, this weekend should at least fall about even, or earn more. Here is our top 10 estimates:
1)Elysium- $35.6 million
2)Planes- $21 million
3)Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters- $18.6 million
4)We’re the Millers- $17 million

5)2 Guns- $13.1 million
6)The Wolverine- $10.8 million
7)The Smurfs 2- $10.6 million
8)The Conjuring- $9.1 million
9)Despicable Me 2- $7.3 million
10)Grown Ups 2- $5.8 million

Check back regularly for more box office updates!


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