UPDATED: THIS POST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH MORE ADDITIONS, AS WELL AS CHANGES TO THE ESTIMATES!
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Last weekend, The Conjuring led the pack of new releases, and beat the record for highest grossing first weekend for an original R rated horror film, a big success for New Line and Warner Bros, which guaranteed more sequels for the film. However, the weekend lost, as a whole, due to last year’s dominating The Dark Knight Rises. However, this weekend will turn the tides back around, as one new anticipated superhero film enters theatres, and is going to easily beat last year’s pack of films.
The Wolverine is the only one opening this weekend, after what seems like a packed summer full of hits and misses. The previous film, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, failed to impress moviegoers and critics alike, opening with $85 million and ending off with $179.8 million, representing a weak hold. X-Men is undoubtedly the most famous X-Men character yet, and definitely has it’s own fanbase, but that film might have led audiences to think that enough is enough, thus impacting this film’s current buzz. However, it is worth thinking that the previous X-Men film released, X-Men: First Class, managed one of the lowest openings in the franchise yet, but was met with critical acclaim and managed to hold on well to the tune of $146.4 million. This film also has a change of setting, which moves this film to Japan, while raising it’s tension in the trailer. This film has definitely received better reviews from critics, right now having a 67% rating on rotten tomatoes, which is much better than the 38% rating received by the previous film. However, audience fatigue is definitely coming in- over the past few weekends, there has been at least a disappointment, mainly due to the high number of big box office successes over the first two months of summer. This summer has also been a great time for superhero movies, with Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel both earning more than $692 million domestically, when combined. Hugh Jackman has been experiencing should also be more popular right now, due to his recent nomination for Best Actor and his role in worldwide blockbuster Les Miserables. Thus, I am currently expecting a slight dip from the previous film’s opening weekend, but better holding power throughout it’s run. Here are some comparisons:
Wolverine facebook: 2,085,885 likes
Wolverine twitter: 51,676 followers
Pacific Rim facebook: 554,586 likes
Pacific Rim twitter: 19,716 followers
Man of Steel facebook: 1,665,627 likes
Man of Steel twitter: 67,874 followers
My current weekend estimates are $77 million.
Another thing to note is that The Conjuring is holding up really well at the box office, which gives us a reason to think that it will have a sweet hold this weekend.
With a lack of films opening this weekend, other than The Wolverine, there is nothing else to cover, so here are my top 10 predictions:
1)The Wolverine- $77 million
2)The Conjuring- $24.1 million
3)Despicable Me 2- $14.9 million
4)Turbo- $12.1 million
5)Grown Ups 2- $12.0 million
6)Red 2- $10.5 million
7)Pacific Rim- $7.7 million
8)The Heat- $6.6 million
9)Fruitvale Station- $5.6 million
10)R.I.P.D- $5.2 million
TOP 10 TOTAL GROSS ESTIMATE: $175.7 million
Check back next week for another round of box office forecast, as we cover 2 Guns and The Smurfs 2. Sometimes next week, also check back for our August preview!