Conjuring, Turbo, Red 2 and RIPD set to have close fight for supremacy

This weekend, 4 really different films will enter the marketplace, with The Conjuring expected to scare up the biggest business of them all.

The Conjuring is an anticipated horror movie which is directed by James Wan. If you have seen his resume, you would know that he has a big one under his belt in the horror genre- he kick started the Saw franchise and the Insidious franchise, to name a few, and he is also set to direct the next Fast and Furious film next summer. The Conjuring is currently receiving spectacular reviews (90% on rotten tomatoes!) and test screenings have been positive. This film is based on a true story which the Warrens investigated back then, and this film’s marketing has been successful as of yet, with several scares. One setback, however, facing the film would be it’s MPAA rating- it is rated R for it’s scares ( no gore, nothing, just old school scares). The film has also been linked to both Amityville Horror and The Exorcist, both of which received some kind of critical acclaim. With so many factors going with it, it should become summer’s next surprise hit, and a win or Warner Bros. Here are some similar comparisons:

The Purge facebook:682,786 likes
The Purge Twitter:21,460 followers
Conjuring Facebook:242,399 likes
Conjuring Twitter:6580 followers

Evil Dead facebook:764,931 likes
Evil Dead twitter:28,584 followers
Mama facebook:1,011,262 likes

As you can see from above, The Conjuring is losing from every possible angle, but it is worth noting that all those films are already in release for quite some time already, and this is the accumulated number. Whether the film can obtain the sleeper hit status remains to be seen, but we can see that New Line is definitely confident about it, and has already put a sequel under development. My current estimates for the film are $36.1 million on opening weekend, which is slightly above The Purge.

red 2

Red 2 releases on Friday either, on a packed weekend, and somehow a sequel seemed somewhat unnecessary. The first film did obtain great numbers, amounting to $199 million worldwide. That definitely pushed Summit to release yet another one, reuniting most of the cast which consists of Bruce Willis, John Malkovich, Mary-Louise Parker and Helen Mirren, while adding Catherine Zeta Jones, Lee Byung-Hun and Anthony Hopkins. This film is really banking on it’s older audience, with these stars being widely appealing to them. Bruce Willis has not been having such a great year so far, with the Die Hard film greatly underperforming. I am currently predicting $21.5 million on opening weekend, a drop from the previous film’s opening weekend.

ripd

R.I.P.D is a wild card for Universal, and it makes me wonder- why choose it? Yes, it has Ryan Reynolds and Jeff Bridges, those who have at least some appealing power, but who wants to watch a film which has so much similiarities with Men in Black, which has much bigger stars in the names of Will Smith and Tommy Lee-Jones? The similiarites are wide-ranging- from the buddy cop aspect, to the killing creatures which are not humans. With this film looking more like a rip-off of Men in Black, this film should end Universal Picture’s wild streak this summer, after releasing well-liked and bankable franchises like Fast and Furious and Despicable Me. Expect this film to earn in the mid-teens range, and I am currently predicting $13.1 million for the weekend.

turbo

The final of the 4 films, which will release early on Wednesday, is Dreamwork’s second movie with Fox, Turbo. This film follows a wildly successful summer for animated films as of yet, with Monsters University and Despicable Me 2 releasing just 2 and 4 weeks prior to this film. There is just that small choice for family movie-goers to choose this weekend, and as Despicable Me 2 is still performing well, with a mid-20 million range expected this weekend, and Monsters University also in the top 10 chart domestically, this film might have a difficult time finding it’s audience. It might perform on par with last year’s Rise of the Guardians, and definitely will not overtake The Croods’ opening weekend. Here are some comparisons with other DreamWorks films:

Turbo facebook:200,559 likes
Turbo twitter:460 followers

The Croods facebook:1,431,193 likes
The Croods twitter:1888 followers
Rise of the Guardians facebook:731,495 likes

As see from above, it is obvious that Turbo is falling far beneath the other two, but as both the other films have already been released in theatres for quite some time, expect Turbo to at least earn on par with Rise of the Guardians by the end of its run, or slightly more. I am currently expecting $41 million for the 5 days period, and $24 million for the 3 day weekend.

Here’s my top 10 estimates for this weekend:
1)The Conjuring-$36.1 million
2)Despicable Me 2-$26.3 million
3)Turbo-$24 million
4)Red 2-$21.5 million

5)Grown Ups 2-$18.3 million
6)Pacific Rim-$18.2 million
7)R.I.P.D-$13.1 million
8)The Heat-$9.1 million
9)Monsters University-$6.0 million
10)The Lone Ranger-$5.5 million

How did you find this article? Sound out your thoughts in the comments below! Check back next week for the forecast on The Wolverine, and the comic-con coverage starting tomorrow!

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