Box Office Forecast: Minions, Grown Ups and Giant Robots set to be in close fight

The most perfect weekend… of them all. This weekend, a robot VS monsters big-budget movie and a sequel to a Adam Sandler break-out comedy try to snatch first place away from cute tiny well-beloved minions, but it looks like both will fail as the minions continue to lead at #1:
Pacific Rim
Pacific Rim looks like is has everything going for it- a dedicated fan base, being a big budget summer spectacle- only if it were released earlier in the summer. Better still, released during the pre Transformers era. The stars in the film are not definite box office draws, and this summer has seen a gloat of big budget visual effects heavy films, which might make this film come a little too late. Besides from that, this film looks like a big budget mash-up of both Transformers and Godzilla, and thinking that this film might just be too similar to both of those, the average moviegoer might try to avoid it, instead opting for Grown Ups 2 or last week’s Despicable Me 2. Here’s how the film is tracking on both facebook and twitter, in comparison with similar films:
Pacific Rim facebook: 411,079 likes
Pacific Rim twitter: 9391 followers

World War Z facebook: 639,305 likes
World War Z twitter: 32,721 followers
White House Down facebook: 320,313 likes
White House Down twitter: 10,555 followers
As you can see from those numbers, Pacific Rim falls somewhere between World War Z and White House Down. Marketing for the film has been intense, and with 3D and IMAX showings which will help boost box office grosses, as well as good reviews (84% on rotten tomatoes) and World War Z and Man of Steel not being so dominant at the box office anymore, it only has to fend off Despicable Me 2. This film will likely be very front-loaded, and fall off rather fast through the weekend, before stabilizing over the next few weeks. Here’s my prediction:
Opening Weekend: $37.2 million End Gross: $101 million
Grown Ups 2
This weekend’s other new offering, Grown Ups 2, looks more like a redundant sequel. Even though the original performed well at the box office, it was met with a critic backlash, suffering from disastrous reviews. As one has seen from Hangover, bad reviews might mean bad signs for a comedy, and people might take a more reserved approach to come out to watch the movie. However, the first film definitely drew a fan base, and this film reunites the cast from the previous film. However, there has definitely been many things happening to Adam Sandler since then. Once a go-to cash cow, he has became unreliable after two flops in a row (Jack and Jill and That’s my Boy). Even though he voiced Hotel Translyvania, which ended up a success, that was just a voice role, and not a live appearance. There has also been several good comedies in theatres (The Heat is the most recent one, others include This is the End), and with The World’s End releasing in theatres one week after, some potential moviegoers might give this film a pass, while also putting in the fact that there has been too many good movies this summer, which might make moviegoers exhausted. Also, US audiences are now big fans of R rated comedy instead of more modest ones which are PG-13 (take The Intership as an example). This film has also removed one of it’s previous leads Rob Schneider, and replaced him with Nick Swardson. Here is the current facebook and twitter data, along with some comparisons:
Grown Ups 2 twitter: 9,889 followers
Grown Ups 2 facebook: 8,290,369 likes
The Heat twitter: 11,049 followers
The Heat facebook: 509,706 likes

For the facebook comparison, the numbers are not really fair- Grown Ups 2 has an edge as the account also include the original film, whereas the heat is an original film. However, it is losing out on twitter. The good news though, is that it currently has more followers than fellow opener Pacific Rim, which means that this film is expected to open bigger, though with less legs. Here’s my prediction:
Opening Weekend Gross: $42 million End Gross: $125 million

This weekend last year, Ice Age: Continental Drift unleashed in theatres as the sole opener, and grossed $46.6 million. The Amazing Spiderman held on well, and dropped 44% to $34.6 million, while third place went to Ted with $22.4 million. The films combined, earned $165 million, and this year’s offerings should beat it out, making this yet another up weekend over last year, and closing the gap of the year to date box office gross domestically. Here’s my Top 10 Predictions:
1)Despicable Me 2- $45.2 million
2)Grown Ups 2- $42 million
3)Pacific Rim- $37.2 million
4)The Heat- $15.6 million
5)The Lone Ranger- $14.2 million
6)Monsters University- $11.8 million
7)World War Z- $10.9 million
8)White House Down- $7.7 million
9)Man of Steel- $6.1 million
10)Kevin Hart: Let me Explain- $4.9 million

Did you enjoy this post? Share with us your mini projections in the comments below, and remember to check back every week for more box office forecasts. Also, this website will not continue starting from next month, so visit our new website at boxofficefrontier.com. Check back Monday for the results!

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