Box Office Forecast: The Box Office will explode… with White Houses and ladies

Last weekend at the box office was a sweet one, and saw yet another Pixar film hit the mark as the second highest opening weekend for the studio, and another film which was definitely one of summer’s biggest surprise. This summer has seen a lot of big surprises, from Now You See Me to Great Gatsby to World War Z. This weekend is when things are starting to get serious, even though it will definitely not match last week’s high (unless one film overperforms drastically, or both films overperform together). This weekend will see two new films invading theaters- White House Down, and The Heat.
White House Down
White House Down
White House Down film database
Before starting this time round, let’s look at it’s current facebook and twitter likes/followers, in comparison with The Heat:
Twitter White House Down- 6549 followers
Twitter The Heat- 8543 followers
Facebook White House Down- 295,180 likes
Facebook The Heat- 445,075 likes
As you can see from the statistics above, The Heat is obviously currently beating White House Down, which means more awareness and anticipation.
White House Down suffers from a variety of factors. It’s current rotten tomatoes score seats at 71%, which is quite good, and a similar film released earlier this year, Olympus Has Fallen, might affect it’s gross, due to potential audience thinking that it is just another similar film. Some comparisons below with Olympus Has Fallen on social media: White House Down’s current likes on facebook exceeds Olympus has Fallen by a large amount (Olympus has Fallen only has 213,853 likes as of time of writing). Twitter is also a similar story (Olympus has Fallen only has 2928 followers right now). White House Down is obviously a better choice for moviegoers. The director of the film is the one that brought you films like 2012 and Independence Day, and every film he directs always brings about lots of destruction. The stars, Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx, are right now having high awareness, and both of them have produced a film which crossed $100 million domestically over the past year (Jamie Foxx with Django Unchained, Channing Tatum with 21 Jump Street, The Vow and Magic Mike). One would think that the film has every factor it needs to start strong at the box office, but remember that the audience might already have been exhausted with heading to the theatres, and with several surprises already this summer, and with stronger options in theatres (last week’s World War Z and Monsters University, along with Man of Steel, being just a few), this film really came at a bad time. I currently expect $54 million this weekend for this film, which is quite a good start.
The Heat
The Heat
The Heat film database
Let’s start off with some comparisons with similar films:
Twitter The Heat- 8543 followers
Twitter Hangover Part III- 24,866 followers
Twitter Ted- 1,505,318 followers
Twitter This is the End- 13,306 followers
Twitter Identity Thief- 9042 followers
Facebook The Heat- 445,075 likes
Facebook Hangover Part III- 38,269 likes
Facebook Ted- 1,935,627 likes 2 weeks after release
Facebook This is the End- 678,234 likes
Facebook Identity Thief- 188,910 likes 2 weeks after release
Well, as seen above, The Heat is really losing to almost all similar comparisons above. However, original comedies usually are not that front-loaded, and this film’s buzz will definitely build-up gradually. This film is really gearing up to be the sleeper comedy hit of summer, and with hardly any films that are gearing towards females, this film would really do well. Melissa McCarthy previously had a hit this year with Identity Thief, and this time round, she returns once again. This film is R rated though, and might limit it’s audience, and pairing two lead actresses in a buddy cop film might seem original, but brining in audiences would be another thing.
I am currently expecting this film to earn $36 million this weekend, while having a strong holding power.
This weekend last year saw a bunch of impressive movies, with Ted earning $54.4 million, Magic Mike earning $39.1 million and Madea’s Witness Protection earning $25.4 million. With stronger holdovers, this weekend will have no problem staying even with last year.
Here are my current estimates for the top 10 films:
1)White House Down- $54.1 million
2)Monsters University- $44.6 million
3)The Heat- $36.3 million
4)World War Z- $28.7 million
5)Man of Steel- $20.5 million
6)This is the End- $8.6 million
7)Now You See Me- $4.9 million
8)Fast and Furious 6- $2.5 million
9)The Internship- $1.7 million
10)The Purge- $1.6 million
Check back with us next week, as we bring you the actuals!

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