Box Office Forecast: Will After Earth overtake Fast and Furious 6 at the box office circuit?

UPDATE 1: After Earth looks like it is going to be a major disappointment for both Will Smith and Sony, only set to past $20million slightly, after scoring a disappointing $1 million from 9pm and midnight shows. Now You See Me looks like it will be more successful, earning $1.5 million from 7pm, 9pm and midnight shows and should hit $20 million.
NOTE: Box Office Forecast articles are relatively new to this website, so please feel free to give me suggestions to improve on my upcoming articles for Box Office Forecast.
May 2013 is already a record month, and you might think that it finally is the end of the month and you must also be exhausted now. A month with an Iron Man 3, Great Gatsby, Fast and Furious 6, Hangover Part III, Star Trek into Darkness and Epic really helped to light the box office on fire over the past one month, but looks like we have one more weekend to go (one-third of a weekend, to be more exact).
Remember last week at the movies? Probably. Three films, combined, worked together with the holdovers to propel to box office to a record memorial day weekend ($314 million), enough for second highest grossing weekend of all time. The 4-day weekend was led by Fast and Furious 6, which opened mighty to the tune of $120 million, a record for the franchise, which was followed far behind in second place by Hangover Part III, which only opened to $51.2 million, down drastically from its predeccessors, while also being affected by its horrid ratings. Star Trek into Darkness held on strong, with a $47 million weekend, while Epic earned $42.6 million, which was a surprise to some. 5th and 6th place belongs to Iron Man 3 and Great Gatsby respectively, with a gross of $24.3 million and $17 million. 7th place was far behind, with $2.4 million earned by Mud in limited release. The rest did not make much sound.
Let’s start off with After Earth:

After Earth
After Earth

After Earth- film database
This film really looks like it will disappoint, and earn in line with what Oblivion earned. Actually, Oblivion might have already drained some of its potential gross, which makes this film appear like it is in a bad shape. This month has already seen several other sci-fi films, and people might already be exhausted with the genre. Also, this film has a similar premise with Oblivion, which actually is bad. The next thing is, M. Night Shyamalan is directing the movie, and he has been subjected to criticism over a few of his previous movies (this includes The Last Airbender). This film only has obtained a 12% rating on rottentomatoes, which might not affect its opening weekend business, but its potential word of mouth. On the bright side, however, Will Smith and Jaden Smith are starring in this film together, and Will Smith has had an impressive track record up till now.
My current projection is $32.1 million on opening weekend and $86 million end gross.
Now you See Me:
Now You See Me
Now You See Me

Now You See Me- film database
Now You See Me- movie review (COMING SOON!)
The film rating isn’t as unpleasant as After Earth, with a 45% rating at least, and also has a star-studded cast which contains Jesse Eisenberg, who has received some attention from the critically-acclaimed The Social Network, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, Mark Ruffalo, Michael Caine and Morgan Freeman. This show has quite a high budget for such a show ($75 million), and with the recent backlash of films concerning magic (or something similar like withcraft), like in The Incredible Burt Wonderstone and Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, we might see this film adversely affected by this. This film, however, has an interesting premise, and is more of a heist film, and should surprise this weekend.
My current projection is $24.6 million on opening weekend and $70 million end gross.
Fast and Furious 6 will most likely regain its position at the top of the chart. This weekend last year saw two new releases, with Snow White and the Huntsman earning $56.2 million. With no film unlikely to earn more than that, we don’t expect the films to topple that number, but we still expect the top 10, as a whole, to earn more than last year’s $132 million.
With no other wide releases this weekend (we will not be looking at limited releases this time round), here are my projections for the top ten:
1st)Fast and Furious 6- $47.6 million
2nd)After Earth- $32.1 million
3rd)Now You See Me- $24.6 million
4th)Epic- $19.1 million
4th)Star Trek into Darkness- $18.9 million
5th)Hangover Part III- $ 17.4 million
7th)Iron Man 3- $11.5 million
8th)The Great Gatsby- $6 million
9th) Mud- $1 million
10th) The Croods- $0.9 million
TOP 10 COMBINED GROSS- $179.1 million

What are your projections for the weekend? Feel free to share them below!

Movie poster for After Earth is owned by Sony
Movie poster for Now you See Me is owned by Summit Entertainment and is obtained from


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